MR Swing: Regime-Adaptive Mean-Reversion with Value Charts
Summary
The document explains MR Swing, a swing-trading system that uses volatility-adjusted Value Charts to identify pullbacks and different rules for bull and bear regimes. Value Charts compare prices with a moving fair-value baseline and scale the difference by recent trading volatility, so overbought and oversold thresholds can adapt as volatility changes. The system looks for oversold readings in bar lows for potential entries during bull markets; on the bear-regime side, it uses percentile ranking to assess how unusual current readings are against historical observations.
The article describes the system’s indicators and MQL5 implementation, then reports backtests over five years on liquid Nasdaq stocks, with AMZN selected for a single-symbol test. It also cites the original authors’ reported contribution to a diversified ETF portfolio. These results are presented as evidence that the approach merits further study, not as a guarantee of future returns. The tests use default parameters and only select among symbols, leaving other markets, parameters, and combinations unexamined; the article explicitly encourages further experimentation.
Key ideas
- Value Charts measure price relative to a moving baseline and scale the difference by recent volatility.
- MR Swing uses oversold readings in bar lows to seek pullback entries in bull markets.
- The system applies asymmetric trading logic across bull and bear regimes.
- Percentile ranking compares current conditions with historical observations to normalize signals.
- The article reports backtests on liquid Nasdaq stocks but leaves broader validation and parameter experimentation open.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.