Normalizing Multifactor Forward-Variance Models
Summary
The document examines how a one-factor mean-reverting stochastic volatility model for instantaneous forward variance might extend to several factors. It describes a lognormal variance process driven by a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck factor, with the volatility loading varying by time to the forward horizon. It then presents a multifactor form with exponential decay rates, correlated Brownian drivers, factor weights, and a normalization term.
The author is unsure how to interpret the weights and covariance structure, why the normalization is needed, and how the multifactor expression recovers the intended one-factor volatility-of-variance behavior. A further displayed formulation uses horizon-dependent factor loadings without defining them. The equations and discussion identify the modeling questions but do not resolve them or provide calibration results, numerical examples, or validation. The material is most useful as an outline of normalization and factor-loading issues in stochastic volatility modeling.
Key ideas
- The one-factor specification models instantaneous forward variance with a mean-reverting stochastic driver.
- Its variance loading decays with the time remaining to the forward horizon.
- The multifactor extension combines drivers with different decay rates and correlated shocks.
- A normalization factor is proposed, but its role and the interpretation of the factor weights remain unresolved.
- The document raises questions about horizon-dependent loadings without supplying a derivation or empirical validation.
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# Bergomi's model normalisation
# Bergomi's model normalisation
On his book https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B019FNKQS8/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1 Bergomi derives a multifactor mean reversible volatility of the volatility such that :
\begin{equation*} d \xi_{t}^{T}=\omega(\tau) \xi_{t}^{T} d X_{t} \end{equation*}
$\xi_{t}^{T}$ is the instantaneous forward variance. $\omega(\tau)$ is a weighted average of forward volatility at time $t$ for an horizon of $T$ .
$X_{t}$ is a mean revertible OU process with length $t$ such : \begin{align} d X_t = -k \omega X_t dt + \omega d W_t \, , \, X_0 = 0 \end{align} We also have $\log(\xi_{t}^{T}) \sim N\Big(\log(\xi_{0}^{T})- \frac{1}{2}\int^{t}_{0}\omega^{2}(T -s ) d s , \int^{t}_{0} \omega^{2}(T -s ) d s\Big)$.The proof is trivial and similar to the one of the Black and Scholes.
The equation becomes equal to :
\begin{align} d \xi_{t}^{T} = w e^{-k(T-t)}\xi_{t}^{T} dX_t \label{eq:eq46} \end{align}
when setting $w$ = $2v$ with $v$ being the volatility of the volatility(which is more natural than the volatility of the variance )
What I don't understand is when translating to multifactor model with $N$ Brownian motions such :
$$ d \xi_{t}^{T}=\omega \alpha_{w} \xi_{t}^{T} \sum_{i} w_{i} e^{-k_{i}(T-t)} d X_{t}^{i} $$ where $\alpha_{w}$ is a normalizing factor and I guess $w_{i}$ is the covariance of the OU processes.However I am not sure of that claim. $$ \begin{aligned} \omega &=2 \nu \\ \alpha_{w} &=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\sum_{i j} w_{i} w_{j} \rho_{i j}}} \end{aligned} $$ I don't understand why and how we used such normalisation because at the end we will have :
\begin{equation} \xi_{t}^{T}=\xi_{0}^{T} \exp ( \sum_i \omega e^{-k_{i}(T-t)} X_{it}- \omega^{2}\sum_{ij}\frac{e^{-(k_{i}+k_{j})(T-t)}}{2} E[X_{it}X_{jt}]) \end{equation}
and will afterward retrieve the initial mean reversible SDE of the lognormal volatility of the variance such :
\begin{equation} \omega(T-t) = \sum_i e^{-k_{i} (T-t) } \omega d W_t \end{equation}
I also find other illustrations on internet that write the multifactor model SDE such :
\begin{equation} d \xi_t^T = w \xi_t^T \sum_k \lambda_{kt}^T \xi_t^T dW_t^k \end{equation}
However I do not understand what is $ \lambda_{kt}^T$ and how the extrapolation has been made from the one factor model .Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.