Opening Range Breakouts with Historical Target Hit Rates

Summary

The indicator defines an opening range over a user-selected intraday window, then projects three target levels above and below its high and low. Targets can use range multiples or Fibonacci ratios. It records whether each target was reached in each completed session and displays historical hit rates, giving traders an instrument-specific view of how often the projected levels have been touched. A volume profile of the range highlights its point of control, and breakout markers distinguish higher- and lower-volume breaks.

Optional ATR trailing stops and a comparison of five ATR distances provide a limited way to inspect stop sensitivity. The document explicitly says this stop study is not a backtest. Hit rates depend on the selected plotting window and the available session history, so they describe past touches rather than future probabilities or trade profitability. The method is intended for intraday charts; coarse timeframes may not contain enough bars to form a useful range or volume profile.

Key ideas

• The opening range is built from session highs and lows or candle bodies during a configurable time window.
• Three projected targets per side can be based on range multiples or Fibonacci ratios.
• Historical target hit rates count sessions in which price reached each level within the chosen plotting window.
• Volume context, a range volume profile, and optional ATR trailing stops supplement breakout signals.
• Past hit rates and the stop comparison do not establish future performance or replace a full backtest.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.