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Optional Sampling for a Brownian Motion’s Two-Sided First-Passage Time

Article Quant Q&A · Author: user7348

Summary

The document derives the Laplace transform of the event that Brownian motion reaches an upper level before a lower one. It uses the exponential martingale and optional sampling at the first exit time from the interval bounded by the two levels.

Applying optional sampling with both positive and negative choices of the martingale parameter yields two equations involving the discounted probabilities of exiting at either boundary. Eliminating the lower-boundary term gives the upper-exit transform as a ratio of hyperbolic sines. The derivation assumes the stated Brownian setup and relies on optional sampling being valid for the stopped process; it is a probability result rather than a trading strategy or empirical market analysis.

Key ideas

  • An exponential transform of Brownian motion provides a martingale for optional sampling.
  • Stopping at the first hit of either boundary separates upper and lower exit events.
  • Using opposite signs for the martingale parameter gives equations that can eliminate the lower-exit contribution.
  • The resulting discounted upper-exit probability is expressed as a ratio of hyperbolic sines.

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Full text
# Optional Sampling Theorem Application


# Optional Sampling Theorem Application












Let x, y > 0. Defint eh first passage time of a Brownian motion $W_t$ as $\tau_a$ = min{t $\ge$ 0: $W_t$ = a}. I need to show that E[$e^{-u\tau_x}$$1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}}$] = $\frac{sinh(y\sqrt{2u})}{sinh((x + y)\sqrt{2u}}$.

My method, and the only method that I will be able to understand, is to use the optional sampling theorem. I noted that $Z_t = e^{\theta W_t - \frac{1}{2}\theta^{2}t}$ is martingale and that the optional sampling theorem states that $E[Z_{\tau_{min\, {a, t}}}$] = 1. Applying this to the stopping time $ {\tau_x, \wedge \tau_{-y}}$ I have managed to show that as t --> $\infty$ $Z_(\tau_x\wedge\tau_{-y})\wedge t$ = $e^{-\theta y - \frac{1}{2} \theta^2 \tau_{-y}}$$1_{\tau_{-y} \, < \, \tau_x}$ + $e^{\theta x - \frac{1}{2} \theta^2 \tau_{x}}$$1_{\tau_{x} \, < \, \tau_{-y}}$. I can't figure where to go from here. I had a similar problem, but there was only one level involved, where here we have two: x and y.

I believe we should now take the expectation of the expression I derived and set it equal to one by optional sampling theorem, but I don't know what follows. Thanks.

## Answer by Gordon (score 2, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/15979

As you have already shown above, \begin{align*} 1 = E\Big(e^{-\theta y - \frac{1}{2}\theta^2 \tau_{-y} }1_{\tau_{-y}<\tau_x} \Big)+E\Big(e^{\theta x - \frac{1}{2}\theta^2 \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big). \end{align*} Set $\theta = \sqrt{2u}$, we obtain that \begin{align*} 1 = E\Big(e^{-\sqrt{2u}y - u \tau_{-y} }1_{\tau_{-y}<\tau_x} \Big)+E\Big(e^{\sqrt{2u} x - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big), \end{align*} that is, \begin{align*} e^{\sqrt{2u}y} = E\Big(e^{- u \tau_{-y} }1_{\tau_{-y}<\tau_x} \Big)+e^{\sqrt{2u} (x+y)}E\Big(e^{ - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big). \end{align*} On the other hand, by setting $\theta = -\sqrt{2u}$, we obtain that \begin{align*} 1 = E\Big(e^{\sqrt{2u}y - u \tau_{-y} }1_{\tau_{-y}<\tau_x} \Big)+E\Big(e^{-\sqrt{2u} x - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big), \end{align*} that is, \begin{align*} e^{-\sqrt{2u}y} = E\Big(e^{- u \tau_{-y} }1_{\tau_{-y}<\tau_x} \Big)+e^{-\sqrt{2u} (x+y)}E\Big(e^{ - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big). \end{align*} Consequently, \begin{align*} e^{\sqrt{2u}y} - e^{-\sqrt{2u}y} = \big[e^{\sqrt{2u} (x+y)} - e^{-\sqrt{2u} (x+y)} \big]E\Big(e^{ - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big). \end{align*} Then, \begin{align*} E\Big(e^{ - u \tau_{x} }1_{\tau_x < \tau_{-y}} \Big) = \frac{\sinh (\sqrt{2u}y)}{\sinh \big(\sqrt{2u} (x+y) \big)}. \end{align*}

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