Pivot-Based Probability Grid from Historical Swing Percentiles

Summary

This chart indicator builds a visual grid from detected price pivots and historical swings. It keeps separate pivot data for bullish and bearish moves, then uses configurable percentiles to show levels associated with the distribution of prior reversals. Users can choose whether the displayed probability refers to outcomes beyond each grid cell or within it, enable selected percentile levels, and adjust grid and dashboard presentation. A normalization option and a maximum reversal count control how the historical observations are handled and retained.

The output is a descriptive forecast display rather than an entry-and-exit strategy: the code draws boxes, lines, percentile labels, and optional pivot marks on the chart. Its evidence comes from the instrument’s recorded pivot history, not from a stated out-of-sample test or reported calibration study. The indicator’s usefulness therefore depends on the chosen swing length, sample history, normalization, and market regime; historical swing frequencies alone do not establish the likelihood of future moves. The document reports no measured trading performance.

Key ideas

• The indicator identifies price pivots and records historical bullish and bearish reversals.
• Percentile settings summarize the observed swing distribution as levels on a chart grid.
• The probability mode distinguishes outcomes beyond a cell from outcomes within it.
• Normalization, swing length, and the retained reversal count affect the historical sample used.
• The grid visualizes historical patterns, but the document offers no out-of-sample calibration or trading results.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.