Poisson-Filtered Football Outcome Baskets on Polymarket

Summary

This strategy builds a three-leg basket for a football match: Yes contracts for a chosen team to win, a 0–0 score, and a 0–1 score. It checks the combined ask cost against a maximum and estimates the basket’s covered probability with a Poisson goal model. Entry requires the model estimate to exceed basket cost by a chosen safety margin. The model can use manually supplied expected goals or infer them from exact-score market quotes. During play, it updates probabilities using the current score and elapsed time; after entry, it watches the actual bids and attempts to sell when basket value reaches a preset profit target.

The document describes a structured prediction trade, not risk-free arbitrage: many possible score outcomes are uncovered. It provides parameter guidance and a source implementation, but no performance evidence. The simple model omits factors such as red cards, injuries, and tactical changes, while thin order books, delayed score data, and execution slippage can undermine entries or exits. The strategy stops active trading after the match ends and waits for redemption.

Key ideas

• The basket combines a selected team’s win contract with 0–0 and 0–1 score contracts.
• Entry depends on both a maximum combined ask cost and a Poisson-model safety margin.
• Expected goals can be supplied directly or estimated from exact-score market quotes.
• During a match, the model updates using the score and elapsed time, while exits use observable bid prices.
• The basket leaves many outcomes uncovered and is exposed to model error, limited liquidity, and execution risk.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.