Pricing European Calls with Recombining Binomial Trees
Summary
The document explains how to price a European call with a recombining binomial model. After fixing the asset's up and down factors and the per-step interest rate, it derives the terminal price distribution and its risk-neutral probabilities. The option value is the discounted expected payoff across all terminal states. This formula allows numerical comparisons across tree sizes without stepping backward through each node.
For a convergence experiment, it recommends holding maturity, strike, volatility, and interest rate fixed while varying the number of steps. The up factor is tied to volatility and the time increment, and the resulting prices can be compared with the Black-Scholes value as a reference. The note suggests the error decreases at a rate proportional to the reciprocal of the step count, while acknowledging that an analytic proof is difficult. It assumes a particular recombining setup and does not provide numerical experiment results.
Key ideas
- A recombining binomial tree gives terminal asset prices and probabilities from the number of up moves.
- A European call's value is the discounted risk-neutral expectation of its terminal payoff.
- The up-move factor can be set from volatility and the length of each time step.
- Holding model inputs fixed while increasing the step count enables comparison with Black-Scholes pricing.
- The document suggests convergence error is inversely proportional to the number of steps, but gives no experimental results.
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Full text
# Investigating how rational price of European call option changes
# Investigating how rational price of European call option changes
Let S(0) = 100 be the initial price of the risky asset. Consider a European call option with exercise price K and expiry time T = 1 (year). Consider several binomial models and investigate how does the rational price of the option ( ie C(0) ) depends on the choice of the parameters of the model and the strike price K.
I'm trying to answer this question but I'm unsure how to start it. I'm trying to do it on a 1-step, 2-step and a 3-step binomial model and maybe see if there is a pattern but I'm unsure how to start it for the 1-step other than probably having a strike price K = 100. Also I think the 2-step will take one step in 1/2 year and the 3-step model in 1/3 year etc.
What I mean is: when I have to assign random parameters U,D and R, do I just pick any numbers I want or is there a certain interval I should stick to? Like can I say that for 1-step U=1.1 and D=0.9 and then for 2-step something like U=1.2 and D=0.8? Does that work for the question or am I not getting it?
## Answer by RRL (score 2, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/59844
With a (recombining) binomial tree, the terminal asset price has a binomial distribution. Given the up and down move size $u$ and $d = 1/u$, respectively, the terminal price after $n$ steps and $k$ up moves is $S_{n,k} =S_0u^kd^{n-k}= S_0u^{2k-n}$ and probability of reaching this price is $$P_{n,k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}q^k(1-q)^{n-k},$$
where $q = \frac{r-d}{u-d}$ and $r$ is the interest rate per period associated with a single step.
The call option price is the discounted risk-neutral expectation of the payoff,
$$C = \frac{1}{(1+r)^n}\sum_{k=0}^n\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}q^k(1-q)^{n-k} \max(S_{n,k}-K,0),$$
This will converge to the Black-Scholes option price. Use that as a reference for assesing the accuracy. I believe that the convergence rate is $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ as $n \to \infty$. In other words, doubling $n$ should halve the error.
You can discover this by numerical experiments using the given pricing formula (you don't have to work laboriously backwards through the tree). The time step size is $\Delta t= \frac{T}{n}$ and the size of the up move is related to volatility through $u = e^{\sigma\sqrt{\Delta t}}$. So you could hold $T$, $K$, $\sigma$, and $r$ fixed and observe the behavior of the option price as $n$ is varied.
You can also prove it analytically although that is very difficult.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.