Quantitative Research Directions for M&A
Summary
The document asks whether M&A research can support more quantitative methods than the small-sample OLS and fixed-effects studies the questioner has encountered. It points to two possible directions: forecasting M&A activity with a predictor model, and applying game theory to mergers and acquisitions.
The suggested predictor is attributed to KPMG, with the idea of building a similar model if suitable data can be obtained. The response also recommends exploring game-theoretic applications, but gives no model specification, data, empirical findings, or research design. Access to the predictor’s underlying dataset is uncertain, and the brief suggestions do not establish how well either approach works. They are starting points for topic selection rather than evidence that a particular method will produce reliable results.
Key ideas
- M&A activity prediction is one potential quantitative research direction.
- A researcher could investigate whether data are available to reproduce or adapt an existing predictor.
- Game theory offers another possible framework for studying M&A decisions.
- The document provides topic suggestions but no empirical analysis or evidence of predictive performance.
Tags
Full text
# What are the possible topics of quantitative research in M&A? # What are the possible topics of quantitative research in M&A? I'm genuinely interested in Quantitative Finance, mostly volatility (e.g. Realized Volatility (MSRV, Realized Kernel), VaR based on GARCH under higher order conditional moment dynamics, etc) or just financial time series in general. However, my graduate academic supervisor told me that this field of research is not very appreciated within my graduate program. Bottom line - I have to choose an M&A-related topic for my term paper (basically what every student on this program ends up doing) or my grade for it will see a sharper decline than post-brexit GBP. It's not that I have no interest in M&A, quite the opposite; however, each and every research I come across regarging this topic relies on plain OLS (FE panel at best) running over and over and... you get the idea. Most of the times sample sizes there are laughable and results are subject to shameless p-hacking, i.e. not the kind of motivation for a research one could possibly want. Is it all that bad or I'm missing something? Aren't there any M&A research directions where I can apply my quant knowledge? ## Answer by Artem Korol (score 1, accepted) https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/30923 Check out KPMG M&A predictor, you can try to make something similar if you can get your hands on the dataset, maybe KPMG is willing to share it. Also there are some interesting researches related to applications of Game Theory to M&A.
Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.