Random Direction Martingale on Bitcoin Perpetual Futures

Summary

This example opens a randomly chosen long or short position in a Bitcoin perpetual futures market. If the position’s unrealized loss exceeds its margin, it adds another order in the same direction; it closes the position when profit exceeds a fixed target. Although the title refers to Fibonacci numbers, the described approach is a simple martingale, and the embedded Fibonacci function is not used to determine order size. The published settings describe a daily backtest with hourly base data over a multi-year period, but the document gives no performance results or analysis.

The method has no stated cap on added orders or total exposure, and increasing a losing position can magnify losses before a reversal occurs. It uses market orders in the backtest, while the author says it has not been run live. The document itself warns that live use could cause account failure. Fees, slippage, funding, and liquidation risk are not quantified, so the example offers no evidence that its profit target or recovery assumption is viable.

Key ideas

• The strategy opens a long or short position using a random direction choice.
• It adds an order in the same direction when unrealized losses exceed the position’s margin.
• It closes a position when its profit passes a fixed target.
• The Fibonacci function shown in the source does not control the order sizing.
• The example reports no performance results and warns of severe live-trading risk.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.