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Ranking Dow Stocks by CAPM Alpha for Monthly Universe Selection

Article Strategy library · Author: QuantConnect

Summary

This framework example selects a changing equity universe by estimating each stock’s alpha relative to a benchmark. On a scheduled monthly selection date, it retrieves daily returns for a set of Dow constituents and the SPY benchmark, fits a linear regression, and ranks stocks by the intercept. The two highest ranked names are selected. The broader framework pairs that universe with upward price insights, equal weighting, immediate execution, and a per-security drawdown limit.

The document supplies implementation logic and a sample configuration spanning one year, but it reports no backtest results or evidence that the ranking predicts returns. Its alpha estimate depends on a short historical return window and on the specified stock universe and benchmark. The example therefore illustrates a selection procedure rather than establishing its effectiveness; it also gives little detail on transaction costs or robustness across periods.

Key ideas

  • The universe is reconsidered monthly using recent daily returns.
  • A linear regression against SPY provides an intercept used as the alpha ranking score.
  • The two stocks with the highest estimated intercepts are selected from the specified Dow constituents.
  • The example combines selection with equal weighting, immediate execution, and a per-security drawdown control.
  • No performance evidence is reported, and the method’s results may depend on the chosen window and universe.

Tags

Full text
# CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm


# CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm









CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm: example of custom scheduled universe selection model

CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm: example of custom scheduled universe selection model Universe Selection inspired by https://www.quantconnect.com/tutorials/strategy-library/capm-alpha-ranking-strategy-on-dow-30-companies

## Source (Apache-2.0)

```python
# QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals.
# Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation.
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.

from AlgorithmImports import *

### <summary>
### CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm: example of custom scheduled universe selection model
### Universe Selection inspired by https://www.quantconnect.com/tutorials/strategy-library/capm-alpha-ranking-strategy-on-dow-30-companies
### </summary>
class CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
    '''CapmAlphaRankingFrameworkAlgorithm: example of custom scheduled universe selection model'''

    def initialize(self):
        ''' Initialise the data and resolution required, as well as the cash and start-end dates for your algorithm. All algorithms must initialized.'''

        # Set requested data resolution
        self.universe_settings.resolution = Resolution.MINUTE

        self.set_start_date(2016, 1, 1)   #Set Start Date
        self.set_end_date(2017, 1, 1)     #Set End Date
        self.set_cash(100000)            #Set Strategy Cash

        # set algorithm framework models
        self.set_universe_selection(CapmAlphaRankingUniverseSelectionModel())
        self.set_alpha(ConstantAlphaModel(InsightType.PRICE, InsightDirection.UP, timedelta(1), 0.025, None))
        self.set_portfolio_construction(EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel())
        self.set_execution(ImmediateExecutionModel())
        self.set_risk_management(MaximumDrawdownPercentPerSecurity(0.01))

class CapmAlphaRankingUniverseSelectionModel(UniverseSelectionModel):
    '''This universe selection model picks stocks with the highest alpha: interception of the linear regression against a benchmark.'''

    period = 21
    benchmark = "SPY"

    # Symbols of Dow 30 companies.
    _symbols = [Symbol.create(x, SecurityType.EQUITY, Market.USA)
               for x in ["AAPL", "AXP", "BA", "CAT", "CSCO", "CVX", "DD", "DIS", "GE", "GS",
                         "HD", "IBM", "INTC", "JPM", "KO", "MCD", "MMM", "MRK", "MSFT",
                         "NKE","PFE", "PG", "TRV", "UNH", "UTX", "V", "VZ", "WMT", "XOM"]]

    def create_universes(self, algorithm):

        # Adds the benchmark to the user defined universe
        benchmark = algorithm.add_equity(self.benchmark, Resolution.DAILY)

        # Defines a schedule universe that fires after market open when the month starts
        return [ ScheduledUniverse(
            benchmark.exchange.time_zone,
            algorithm.date_rules.month_start(self.benchmark),
            algorithm.time_rules.after_market_open(self.benchmark),
            lambda datetime: self.select_pair(algorithm, datetime),
            algorithm.universe_settings)]

    def select_pair(self, algorithm, date):
        '''Selects the pair (two stocks) with the highest alpha'''
        dictionary = dict()
        benchmark = self._get_returns(algorithm, self.benchmark)
        ones = np.ones(len(benchmark))

        for symbol in self._symbols:
            prices = self._get_returns(algorithm, symbol)
            if prices is None: continue
            A = np.vstack([prices, ones]).T

            # Calculate the Least-Square fitting to the returns of a given symbol and the benchmark
            ols = np.linalg.lstsq(A, benchmark)[0]
            dictionary[symbol] = ols[1]

        # Returns the top 2 highest alphas
        ordered_dictionary = sorted(dictionary.items(), key= lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
        return [x[0] for x in ordered_dictionary[:2]]

    def _get_returns(self, algorithm, symbol):

        history = algorithm.history([symbol], self.period, Resolution.DAILY)
        if history.empty: return None

        window = RollingWindow(self.period)
        rate_of_change = RateOfChange(1)

        def roc_updated(s, item):
            window.add(item.value)

        rate_of_change.updated += roc_updated

        history = history.close.reset_index(level=0, drop=True).items()

        for time, value in history:
            rate_of_change.update(time, value)

        return [ x for x in window]

```

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: Apache-2.0

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.