Reading Bitcoin and Ether Options Volatility Around the US Election
Summary
This market note reviews Bitcoin and Ether options ahead of the US presidential election. It describes a kink in the at-the-money implied-volatility term structure: short-dated, roughly one-month options had risen to levels closer to longer maturities, even as overall volatility fell during the week. The report interprets this shape as a persistent election-related dislocation.
It also compares 25-delta risk reversals and volatility smiles. After early-October spot weakness, short-dated skews favored puts around election expiries; Bitcoin’s out-of-the-money call preference later returned, while Ether’s short-tenor put premium persisted. These observations are qualitative summaries of the report’s volatility charts, with no numerical series or explicit trading rules supplied. The commentary is time-specific and informational, and the source cautions that market conditions can change and that its data and analysis may be incomplete or inaccurate. It does not establish that the observed skew or term structure predicts subsequent prices.
Key ideas
- Bitcoin and Ether at-the-money implied volatility eased while the election-related term structure dislocation remained.
- Short-dated option skews moved toward puts during an early-October sell-off.
- Bitcoin’s out-of-the-money call preference recovered, while Ether retained a short-tenor put premium.
- The report presents market observations rather than a tested forecast or trading strategy.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.