Research on the Credit Risk Premium and Systematic Credit Investing
Summary
The document points readers seeking an overview of credit risk premia toward research on corporate bonds, systematic credit strategies, and tactical allocation. The cited work argues that measuring credit excess returns requires adjusting for interest-rate term risk; one study reports evidence of a premium in long U.S. and shorter European histories after making that adjustment. It also describes how the premium varies with economic growth and aggregate default rates.
A second paper organizes systematic credit investing into broad exposure to the overall premium and relative-value positions across credit instruments, and discusses potential portfolio performance and diversification benefits. A further study examines strategic corporate-bond overweights and divides economic activity into recurring phases to inform tactical tilts. The answer is a short reading list rather than a complete survey or implementation guide. Its empirical claims are summaries of cited papers, not independently demonstrated in the document, and any structural overweight carries tracking error and may require long periods to pay off.
Key ideas
- Credit excess returns need to be adjusted for interest-rate term risk when estimating a credit premium.
- Research cited in the document finds evidence of a credit premium and relates its variation to growth and default conditions.
- Systematic credit strategies can target broad credit exposure or relative value across credit instruments.
- Strategic corporate-bond overweights may involve substantial tracking error and long payoff periods.
- Economic-cycle indicators can help inform tactical changes to credit exposure.
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# Literature on credit risk premia # Literature on credit risk premia I am looking for a comprehensive ressource describing known strategies of credit risk premia. Is there such kind of articles/books/websites? ## Answer by AK88 (score 3) https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/35184 Two papers by AQR might be of use: Asvanunt, A. and S. Richardson (2016), “The Credit Risk Premium”: > Despite theoretical and intuitive reasons for a credit risk premium, past research has found little supporting empirical evidence. This is primarily due to biases in computing credit excess returns which improperly account for term risk. Using data spanning 80 years in the U.S., and nearly 20 years in Europe, we find strong evidence of credit risk premium after correctly adjusting for term risk. The credit risk premium is not spanned by other known risk premia and exhibits time variation related to economic growth and aggregate default rates. These results have important implications for asset pricing and investment decisions. Asvanunt, A., Frieda, A., and S. Richardson, “Systematic Credit Investing”: > This paper aims to increase familiarity of the credit asset class and provide an overview of our approach to systematic credit investing. We introduce credit instruments and outline a simple framework for understanding sources of credit excess returns. We summarize two avenues for approaching systematic credit investing (and provide many references for readers interested in greater depth): (i) strategic and tactical exposure to the overall credit risk premium and (ii) relative value opportunities across credit instruments. We find that both kinds of systematic credit exposure have the potential to provide meaningful performance and diversification benefits to traditional and alternative portfolios. Also take a look at Van Luu, B. and P. Yu (2011). The credit risk premium: should investors overweight credit, when, and by how much?: > The authors revisit the case for maintaining a strategic overweight to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios based on the notion of the credit risk premium. Using a series of excess returns to investment-grade corporate bonds going back to 1926, the authors find evidence of a positive risk premium of corporate bonds over Treasuries. However, investors who rely on a passive structural overweight should be aware of the substantial additional tracking error and the long payoff periods required. Second, they examine the behavior of credit excess returns through many cycles, using the OECD Composite Leading Index to divide economic activity into four re-occurring phases. At the margin, the results are useful in guiding portfolio managers and asset owners in their tactical decisions with regard to the magnitude of the credit tilt.
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