Retail FX Profitability: Quarterly Broker Reports and Stability

Summary

The document asks whether the often repeated claim that most retail foreign exchange traders lose money is supported by detailed statistics. It is interested in the distribution of client gains and losses, and whether results vary over time, by country, or across currency pairs. The response points to quarterly profitability disclosures made by member brokers under the US National Futures Association and to a site that aggregates the reports for comparison.

The cited reports are said to put the share of unprofitable accounts nearer 65% than 90%, with that proportion described as fairly stable over time. This provides a recurring, broker-reported measure that can challenge a broad claim about retail outcomes. The document does not present the underlying reports, sample definitions, or a full profit-and-loss distribution. It also does not establish whether the figures generalize beyond the covered brokers or answer the questions about country and currency-pair differences.

Key ideas

• NFA member brokers report retail account profitability figures quarterly.
• An aggregator can help compare broker reports across reporting periods.
• The answer gives an unprofitable-account share closer to 65% than the commonly repeated 90% claim.
• The reported share is described as relatively stable over time, but no detailed distribution is supplied.

Tags

# Distribution of profit/loss for retail traders in FX


# Distribution of profit/loss for retail traders in FX












I've heard that 90% of retail investors in FX lose money. I want to analyze this in more detail.

Question: Is there some literature that describes the statistics of profit/loss for retail traders in FX?

- I would be interested to see the distribution function - i.e. how many clients gaining how much money.

- How stable it is - with respect to time and other things e.g. country, currency pairs?

## Answer by MichaelJ (score 3, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/12842

The NFA member brokers report retail account profitability figures quarterly. There is a site that aggregates this data to facilitate comparisons. You can look back at the last several reports. You'll see that the correct figure is closer to 65% and that it's quite stable through time.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.