Scored Long-Only Trend Following with EMA, Efficiency, and ATR Filters

Summary

This long-only system scores trend conditions using eight components: the ordering and separation of smoothed EMAs, their slopes, path efficiency, positive momentum and rising-bar persistence, ATR relative to its baseline, breakout strength, and pullback reclaim strength. Entry requires a minimum score plus one of three setups: continuation after a breakout, re-entry after a deep pullback, or an early trend entry following an EMA crossover. Weak scores, structural breaks, momentum failure, or a deteriorating volatility and efficiency regime can prompt an exit.

Risk controls include leverage-based sizing, a hard percentage stop, an ATR trailing stop, a profit-lock level, a one-bar minimum hold, and a cooldown after exits. The published test uses hourly XAG/USDT futures for a limited period in early 2026, but no returns or other test statistics are supplied. Its detailed thresholds describe the design, not verified performance.

The document presents the system as trend-market oriented and warns that choppy conditions can cause exits and reversals can produce drawdowns. It also makes strong claims about breakout frequency and improved entry success without presenting supporting evidence, so those claims should not be treated as established findings.

Key ideas

• A weighted score combines EMA structure, slopes, efficiency, persistence, momentum, volatility, breakouts, and reclaims.
• Three entry patterns target trend continuation, pullback re-entry, and early trend formation.
• Exits combine trend deterioration checks with hard and ATR-based trailing stops.
• The short hourly futures test provides no reported performance statistics.
• The stated design favors trending markets and may lag during sharp reversals or struggle in choppy conditions.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.