Scoring NQ Micro-Trends with EMA Alignment, Price, Slope, and Volume
Summary
This article develops a continuous short-horizon trend score for NQ one-minute bars. The score combines the ordering of fast, medium, and slow exponential moving averages, the close’s ATR-normalized distance from those averages, consistency of their recent slopes, and tick-volume confirmation. A penalty reduces the score when EMA ordering conflicts with price relative to the fast EMA. The score can then be converted into trend labels, a binary direction, or a persistence measure.
The author also describes adapting signal thresholds using confidence from a broader regime classifier: thresholds loosen in higher-confidence sessions and tighten in lower-confidence ones. The reported study covers 514 NQ M1 New York sessions from May 2024 to May 2026, finding that trend persistence differs by regime and that adaptation moves some stressed-session signals into a no-signal zone. These are in-sample findings from one instrument and session sample; the document does not establish out-of-sample predictive or trading profitability, and the composite’s selected weights and thresholds may need validation elsewhere.
Key ideas
- A continuous score captures trend alignment and strength beyond a binary EMA crossover.
- The composite combines EMA ordering, ATR-scaled price position, slope consistency, and volume confirmation.
- A contradiction penalty reduces directional scores when price action conflicts with EMA alignment.
- Regime confidence can be used to adapt signal thresholds across session conditions.
- Reported results use NQ one-minute New York sessions and do not establish performance outside that sample.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.