Short Rates, Zero Rates, and Option Pricing with Stochastic Rates
Summary
The answer distinguishes the instantaneous short rate modeled by CIR from a maturity-specific zero rate, which is inferred from the price of a zero-coupon bond. It notes that a model of the short rate generates bond prices and thus a term structure; a single five-year yield is not interchangeable with the short rate. It also identifies Hull–White as a possible choice when matching the initial term structure is important.
For a vanilla European call, the response gives a Black-style valuation using the maturity discount factor, forward price, and market Black implied volatility. Under that setup, the current five-year zero-coupon bond price is sufficient for the stated valuation, so a stochastic rate model is not required just to apply the formula. This is a scoped result: it relies on the specified vanilla payoff and quoted Black volatility, and the response notes that Black and Black–Scholes implied volatilities differ when rates are stochastic. It does not specify an instrument or source for the US five-year risk-free proxy asked about.
Key ideas
- A CIR short rate represents an instantaneous rate, while a five-year zero rate is derived from a five-year bond price.
- A short-rate model implies bond prices across maturities rather than modeling one maturity yield as the short rate.
- Hull–White can be useful when matching the observed initial zero curve is important.
- The stated vanilla European call can be valued with the maturity discount factor, forward, and Black implied volatility.
- Black and Black–Scholes implied volatilities need not coincide under stochastic interest rates.
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Full text
# Valuing derivatives under stochastic interest rates
# Valuing derivatives under stochastic interest rates
I would like to price a European option with maturity equals to 5 years. To do this, I'm using the Black-Scholes model with stochastic interest rates.
Suppose I choose the CIR model for the risk-free rate. My question is: should I model the entire term structure of interest rates, or I can just model the 5-year rate?
As a side question, which one would be considered a good proxy for the 5-year risk-free rate in the US?
## Answer by Gordon (score 3, accepted)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/26360
A few points can be noted.
- The CIR model is usually for a short, or instantaneous, spot rate $r_t$, which is the forward rate over an infinitesimal interval. That is, \begin{align*} r_t = \lim_{\Delta \rightarrow 0}\frac{1}{\Delta}\left(\frac{1}{P(t, t+\Delta)}-1 \right), \end{align*} where $P(t, u)$ is the price at time $t$ of a zero-coupon bond with maturity $u$ and unit face value.
- The $T$-year rate is usually the zero rate $R_T$, defined by \begin{align*} P(0, T) = e^{-R_T T},\tag{1} \end{align*} which is not the short rate.
- Hull-White model may be better as the initial term structure of zero rates, or correspondingly, bond prices, can be matched.
- For a vanilla European option with a payoff of the form \begin{align*} \max(S_T-K, \, 0), \end{align*} the value is given by the Black's formula \begin{align*} P(0, T)\big[F_TN(d_1) -KN(d_2) \big].\tag{2} \end{align*} Here, $F_T=S_0/P(0, T)$ is the forward price, $d_1 = \frac{\ln F_T/K + \frac{1}{2}\sigma^2 T}{\sigma \sqrt{T}}$, and $d_2 = d_1 - \sigma \sqrt{T}$. Note that, in Formula $(2)$, the volatility $\sigma$ is Black's implied volatility, which can usually be obtained from the market quote. In this case, the stochastic interest rate model is not really needed. That is, only the $T$-year zero rate $R_T$ is needed to compute the bond price $P(0, T)$ by Formula $(1)$. Here, in your case, the 5-year zero rate is needed. However, we note that the Black's implied volatility is different from the Black-Scholes' implied volatility, if stochastic interest rate is assumed. See this question for a detailed exposition.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.