SMC Structure Signals with Historical Continuation and Reversal Probabilities
Summary
This document explains a Smart Money Concepts indicator that labels changes and breaks in market structure as CHoCH, SMS, or BMS. It tracks outcomes in loaded price history and displays estimated probabilities for the next continuation or reversal, alongside a win/loss record. The indicator also marks premium, discount, and equilibrium areas using recent swing levels, framing where bearish or bullish setups may be considered.
Its settings adjust pivot sensitivity and the speed of break confirmation, and allow users to hide directional labels or price zones. The supplied ProRealTime implementation illustrates the state tracking and display logic. The document does not present a separate empirical validation of the probabilities or performance results; estimates depend on the asset and historical data loaded. The described zones and structural labels are analytical conventions, so the percentages should be treated as historical frequencies rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
Key ideas
- The indicator classifies structural events as CHoCH, SMS, or BMS to distinguish possible reversals from trend continuation.
- It estimates event probabilities from prior structure outcomes in the loaded market history.
- Recent swing highs and lows define premium, discount, and middle zones for contextualizing setups.
- Pivot and response periods control how sensitive and fast the structure detection is.
- Historical frequencies and win rates do not establish predictive performance across other assets or periods.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.