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Spoofing Orders: Cancellation Mechanics and Position Risk

Article Quant Q&A · Author: noctonura

Summary

The document explains why spoofing orders may avoid execution and what financial exposure remains for the trader. In the example, a large limit order is placed away from the current bid and ask to create pressure on prices, while the trader takes a position in the opposite direction. If the market moves as hoped, the trader can cancel the displayed order and potentially profit from a temporary price shift.

The order can still execute if market conditions move it into the actionable bid-ask range before cancellation. Since spoof orders may be very large and oppose the trader’s intended position, an accidental fill can create a loss or an unaffordable exposure. The discussion describes the mechanics conceptually, using an illustrative futures-market scenario; it provides no measured evidence about how often the tactic succeeds or how large typical losses are. The risk analysis is limited to market exposure and excludes legal consequences, which the question explicitly sets aside.

Key ideas

  • Spoofing orders may be placed away from the best bid and ask to reduce immediate execution risk.
  • A displayed order can influence perceived supply or demand while the trader takes an opposing position.
  • If the market moves far enough before cancellation, the spoof order may execute and create a real position.
  • An unintended fill can be especially damaging when the order is large and opposite to the intended trade.

Tags

Full text
# Is spoofing financially risky?


# Is spoofing financially risky?












It's alleged that Navinder Singh Sarao contributed to the flash crash by placing huge, fake, order for S&P Minis. Mr. Singh Sarao then cancelled the huge orders before they were filled. The spoofed orders created false impressions in the market which Mr. Singh then profited from.

Here's what I don't get...why weren't the fake orders filled, leaving him with a real position? Order execution is typically very fast so how was he able to show the fake order to the market then cancel it before it was executed? It seems like he was putting himself in a very risky position that the huge fake order might get executed.

Note: I realize spoofing is illegal and very risky in that sense. I'm trying to understand the positional financial risk aspect (not counting fines, legal fees, jail, etc.).

## Answer by Bob Jansen (score 5, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/17578

This FT Alphaville article confirms and has some discussion about your idea that Sarao was indeed taking a risk every time he created spoofing orders. But in short, yes: if you place a limit order and a large enough order hits the market your limit order can be filled without a possibility to cancel (unless the exchange is dodgy) and you will end up with a position.

## Answer by Brumder (score 3)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/21058

The reason these "fake" orders weren't filled was because they would be placed outside of the bid-ask spread. So, imagine the following: you're trying to buy/turnaround S&P 500 E-Mini futures to make a quick profit. The bid is 1976.50 and the ask is 1977.10. What you do is place a large sell order in the market for 1976.10 (or some price below bid) to make it look as if the market is bidding the asset down. You're hoping that this large volume causes the price to fall temporarily, but not enough so to cause your order to actually be filled. In a successful case, the bid falls (because of your large, below-market order) to 1976.20 (or whatever lower figure) causing the resulting ask to be lower as well. You then buy in at this lower ask and cancel your sell order at 1976.10. The strategy is that the price will return to its fair level with your low order now cancelled while you profit on the security you purchased at the artificially depressed price. You can go the opposite direction when it's time to sell and set a fake buy order above market, too.

Now the risk is when you place your aforementioned 1976.10 sell order, but the market conditions are such that this actually falls within the appropriate bid - ask range, causing the order to execute. This is risky because these fake orders are usually massive in volume, sometimes more than the trader can afford and almost always more than they should allocate. Thus, any small losses on this unintended position can prove disastrous. Additionally, these fake orders are in the opposite direction of the trader's actual bet.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.