SPY Moving Average Thresholds for Leveraged ETF Rotation

Summary

The document outlines a regime-based approach that uses SPY relative to its 200-day simple moving average to switch exposure between leveraged TQQQ and QQQ. The supplied script opens a long position when SPY closes more than 4% above the moving average and closes it when SPY falls more than 3% below. The accompanying description proposes gradually moving into QQQ after the exit and returning to TQQQ when SPY recovers; it also describes reducing QQQ exposure if QQQ rises far above its own moving average.

The script includes chart markers and a timer for an anniversary after a position opens, but the displayed logic does not show an automatic portfolio rotation into QQQ. No backtest results or risk statistics are provided, so the strategy’s performance cannot be inferred. The rule relies on daily SPY signals and applies to leveraged ETFs, making threshold choice, whipsaws, leverage, and the gap between the written description and script important considerations.

Key ideas

• SPY’s distance from its 200-day moving average determines the stated entry and exit signals.
• The script enters above the moving average’s 4% upper threshold and exits below its 3% lower threshold.
• The written plan proposes shifting from TQQQ to QQQ after an exit and returning to TQQQ after recovery.
• The description adds a QQQ-based condition for reducing exposure during an unusually extended move.
• The document reports no performance statistics, and its script does not implement all of the described rotation steps.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.