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Stochastic Rates and Discounting in Longstaff–Schwartz Continuation Values

Article Quant Q&A · Author: KT8

Summary

The document examines the continuation value in the Longstaff–Schwartz simulation method for American options. The question asks whether conditional expectations of future cash flows can be separated from discount factors evaluated at the current time. The accepted response explains that the paper’s expression accommodates stochastic interest rates: future discounting is generally random, so it cannot simply be treated as a known current discount factor. With deterministic discount factors, the two formulations agree.

The discussion also distinguishes numeraires and probability measures. Under the risk-neutral measure used in the paper, the money market account is the numeraire; using a zero-coupon bond as numeraire would require the corresponding forward measure instead. Another response points out that an intermediate-time factorization requires the relevant payoff to be known at that time, which the setup does not assume. The exchange offers conceptual clarification rather than a full derivation or numerical example, and the exact decomposition depends on the rate and payoff information available at each conditioning time.

Key ideas

  • Stochastic interest rates make future discount factors random, so they cannot generally be pulled outside a conditional expectation as known values.
  • With deterministic discount factors, the proposed separation agrees with the discounted-expectation expression.
  • Risk-neutral pricing in the paper uses the money market account numeraire.
  • A zero-coupon-bond numeraire requires a corresponding change of probability measure.
  • An intermediate-time factorization depends on whether the payoff is already known at that time.

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Full text
# Continuation value definition in Longstaff and Schwartz


# Continuation value definition in Longstaff and Schwartz












I am going through the paper by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) on American-options pricing, and something got me confused.

There, in equation $(1)$ the continuation value at time $t_k$, $F(\omega; t_k)$, is defined as follows $$F(\omega; t_k) = E_Q\left[ \sum_{j = k+1}^{K} \exp \left( - \int_{t_k}^{t_j} r(\omega, s ) \, ds \right) C(\omega, t_j ; t_k, T) \; \Bigg\vert \; \mathcal{F}_k \right].$$

However, I think that it should instead be rewritten as $$F(\omega; t_k) = \sum_{j = k+1}^{K} D(t_k, t_j) \cdot E_Q\left[ C(\omega, t_j ; t_k, T) \; \Bigg\vert \; \mathcal{F}_k \right],$$ where $D(t_k, t_j) $ are the different discount factors at $t_k$, which are $\mathcal{F}_k$-measurable. My idea is nothing different to the martingale condition under the risk-free probability measure $Q$.

So my question is, is there something that I am missing here?

I appreciate every comment or discussion on the subject.

Edit

What I really mean is, isn't the price of a derivative at time $t$, chosen a numerary $\mathcal{N}$, given by

$$\dfrac{V(t,T)}{\mathcal{N}(t,T)} = E_{Q} \Bigg[ \dfrac{V(T,T)}{\mathcal{N}(T,T)} \Bigg\vert \mathcal{F}_t \Bigg]$$

where if $\mathcal{N}$ is chosen to be a zero coupon bond, then $\mathcal{N}(t,T) = D(t,T)$ and $\mathcal{N}(T,T) = 1$.

Longstaff, Schwartz - Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach (2001)

## Answer by Sebastian (score 2, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/68810

I haven't read the paper but I would say that the formula in the paper seems more general. It accounts for the possibility of stochastic interest rates. If we have deterministic discount factors, then your formula and the paper's formula agree.

Answer to your edit: We know for sure, in the paper they are using the money market account process as numerarie since they are also using the risk-neutral probability measure $Q$. The money market account process is worth 1 at the initial time. So the denominator on the LHS of your formula in your edit, is worth 1, which means that the formula in the paper is correct. The numerarie can not be a zero coupon bond if we are using the risk-neutral probability $Q$. If you chose a zero coupon bond as numerarie, then you need to change the probablity measure from the risk neutral $Q$ to an equivalent probability measure $Q'$ (note that the probability in the paper is $Q$ and not $Q'$).

## Answer by Kurt G. (score 0)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/68809

By the general no arbitrage pricing theory the price at time $t_k$ of a payoff $C$ that is paid at time $t_j\ge t_k$ is $$ E_Q\left[\exp\left(-\int_{t_k}^{t_j}r(s)\,ds\right)C\,\Bigg|\,{\cal F}_{t_k}\right]\,. $$ For $t\in[t_k,t_j]$ you can use a property of iterated conditional expectations to write this as $$ E_Q\left[E_Q\left[\exp\left(-\int_{t_k}^{t_j}r(s)\,ds\right)C\,\Bigg|\,{\cal F}_{t}\right]\Bigg|\,{\cal F}_{t_k}\right]\,. $$ If $C$ were known at $t$ (an assumption that Longstaff-Schwartz do not make (correct me if I am wrong) you could pull $\exp(-\int_{t_k}^tr(s)\,ds)\,C$ out of the inner expectation and get a formula similar to yours: $$ E_Q\left[\exp\left(-\int_{t_k}^tr(s)\,ds\right)\,C\,\underbrace{E_Q\left[\exp\left(-\int_{t}^{t_j}r(s)\,ds\right)\,\Bigg|\,{\cal F}_{t}\right]}_{D(t,t_j)}\Bigg|\,{\cal F}_{t_k}\right]\,. $$

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.