Survey Evidence on U.S. Prediction Market Use and Regulation

Summary

Paradigm reports a poll of U.S. likely voters fielded in February 2026 about prediction market awareness, use, public opinion, and regulation. The survey found reported use for wagering or checking odds, with differences across age, race and ethnicity, and gender. Many respondents favored legality with some restrictions, while nearly half of those who had heard of the markets held no opinion. The document also compares users’ reported social activities with those of non-users.

The poll used an online, quota-based non-probability sample of registered voters, then weighted responses to modeled likely-electorate demographics and turnout. The reported margin of sampling error is calculated as if the sample were random and adjusted for weighting. These findings describe this survey’s respondents and should be read with its sampling design in mind; the document provides no experimental evidence that prediction market use causes the demographic or social patterns it reports.

Key ideas

• The poll reports that respondents use prediction markets both to place bets and to consult odds for information.
• Reported use varies across age groups and demographic categories in the survey.
• Respondents generally favored legal access with some restrictions, while many had no settled opinion.
• The online quota sample was weighted to model the likely electorate, so results depend on that design.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.