Testing the 12-Month Moving Average Rule for SPY with Excel

Summary

The document introduces a webinar that examines a common market claim: that holding SPY when its price is above its 12-month moving average is preferable to holding it below that level. It says the claim is tested using Excel and free market data, presenting spreadsheet-based analysis as an accessible way to scrutinize trading lore. The author distinguishes research from simply running a backtest, arguing that backtests alone can produce misleading conclusions. The page does not include the webinar’s calculations, performance figures, or final verdict on the moving-average rule, so the evidence and method cannot be assessed from the text itself. Its useful takeaway is methodological: treat a market rule as a hypothesis to investigate and look beyond a backtest before drawing conclusions.

Key ideas

• The webinar investigates whether SPY's position relative to its 12-month moving average carries useful information.
• Excel and free data are presented as tools for examining a familiar market claim.
• The author cautions that backtesting by itself is not a complete research process.
• The page does not report the test results or enough detail to reproduce the analysis.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.