Testing Whether Asian Session Direction Predicts Later Forex Moves

Summary

The article tests the claim that the direction of the Asian session determines subsequent trading. Its MQL4 Expert Advisor labels a chosen session bullish, bearish, or neutral by comparing its opening and closing prices. It then examines a fixed number of following hourly bars, counting whether a take-profit or a session-range stop level is reached first. The author varies session hours, profit targets, currency pairs, and the number of hours observed after the session.

The reported tables cover four currency pairs and the preceding 50 days, with results varying across pairs and settings. The author concludes that the broad claim is unsupported in this sample, while noting some high take-profit hit rates for small targets and one striking result for EURUSD. These are short-sample counts, not evidence of durable predictive power. Session definitions depend on broker server time and daylight-saving conventions, and the test does not establish trading costs, execution quality, or robustness over longer histories.

Key ideas

• The test classifies a session by comparing its opening and closing prices.
• It counts later take-profit or stop-level hits over a configurable number of hourly bars.
• Results vary with the currency pair, session hours, target size, and post-session observation window.
• The reported sample spans 50 days, so its hit rates do not establish persistent predictability.
• Broker time conventions and daylight-saving changes affect how sessions should be defined.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.