Trading Bitcoin Options Around the January 2024 ETF Decision
Summary
The article considers how to position Bitcoin options around the expected U.S. spot ETF decision in January 2024. Its thesis is that prior SEC feedback and revised applications made rejection seem less likely, while traders appeared to price a roughly 11% move through the January 12 expiry. The author also discusses Bitcoin’s recent range, elevated funding, and technical resistance, while arguing that holiday trading conditions and event risk could make chart signals less useful.
The proposed tactics include selling a January 5 straddle and buying a January 12 straddle, or using a calendar spread in 45,000 calls by selling the nearer expiry and buying the later one. The article also raises the possibility that ETF news could affect Ether volatility and relative performance. These are dated views and trade ideas tied to a specific event window; the article offers no systematic backtest, and its expectations about SEC decisions and market moves are uncertain.
Key ideas
- The author expected the ETF decision to become a major market catalyst around January 8–10, 2024.
- A short January 5 straddle paired with a long January 12 straddle was presented as one event-window trade.
- A 45,000 call calendar spread was identified as the preferred tactical position.
- Holiday liquidity and event risk were reasons to discount short-term technical signals.
- The article suggested monitoring Ether volatility and its performance relative to Bitcoin.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.