Trading Post-NFP Retracements with Fibonacci Levels
Summary
This article outlines a rule-based approach to trading after Non-Farm Payroll releases. It anchors Fibonacci retracement levels between the pre-spike price and the first post-release spike extreme, then waits for price to pull back into a chosen zone and show confirmation. For bullish moves, the proposal is to enter long on a retracement, target a retest of the spike high, and place a stop near the move’s origin; bearish setups reverse the direction. It also discusses buffers, position sizing by risk, stale order cancellation, partial exits, and optional correlated-pair confirmation.
The evidence is a manual review of three USD currency pairs around one September 2025 release. The charts are described as showing reactions near retracement levels followed by continuation, but this is a small illustrative case study rather than a statistical test. The article does not establish profitability across releases, specify a robust confirmation rule, or quantify slippage and spread effects during volatile news. Its suggested levels and risk controls are configurable design choices that require broader historical and forward testing.
Key ideas
- The strategy anchors retracement levels to the pre-release baseline and the post-news spike extreme.
- Entries are considered only after price returns to a selected Fibonacci zone and meets a confirmation rule.
- The proposed stop is near the spike origin, while the initial target is a retest of the spike extreme.
- The article suggests risk-based sizing, stop buffers, order expiry, partial exits, and optional pair confirmation.
- Its examples cover three currency pairs around one release and do not establish general performance.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.