Trend Following with McGinley Direction and Hull Curve Reversals

Summary

This trend-following system uses a McGinley Dynamic average as a directional filter and a Hull moving average curve to time entries. A turn in the Hull curve can trigger a long or short position when the McGinley baseline points in the matching direction; an optional moving average confirmation can further filter entries. Positions also have percentage-based stop and target levels, sized from account equity and a stated risk fraction, and close when the Hull curve reverses.

The published configuration describes a four-hour BTC/USDT futures backtest over roughly one month, with a 15-minute base period. No performance statistics are supplied, so the document offers a rule description rather than evidence of profitability. It notes that moving average signals can lag and that parameters and confirmation filters need testing. The source uses crossover conditions, fixed percentage exits, and an optional confirmation switch, but the short sample and lack of results limit conclusions about robustness across markets or periods.

Key ideas

• The McGinley Dynamic average supplies the broad trend direction for entries.
• Hull curve turns time entries and reverse turns close open positions.
• An optional simple moving average can confirm the direction of a signal.
• Position size is calculated from equity risk and the distance to a percentage stop, with a risk-reward target.
• The short published backtest configuration has no accompanying performance results, and lag and parameter sensitivity remain concerns.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.