Triple Moving Average Pullback Entries and Exits

Summary

This long-only trend-following method compares closing price with three simple moving averages: a 3-day average of lows, a 3-day average of highs, and a 30-day average of closes. It enters when price is below the short-term low average but above the medium-term close average, interpreting that position as a pullback within a broader uptrend. It exits when price closes above the short-term high average. The source describes daily signals and a backtest on BTC/USDT futures from May 2023 to May 2024.

The document gives a rationale for combining short- and medium-term averages but reports no measured performance results. It warns that sideways conditions may generate frequent trades, sudden moves can undermine the rules, and fixed parameters may lose relevance as market behavior changes. The strategy as shown has no explicit position sizing or stop-loss rule, which limits its risk controls. Suggested extensions include volatility filters, additional trend indicators, parameter testing, and position management; their effectiveness is not established here.

Key ideas

• A long entry occurs when the close falls below its 3-day low average while remaining above its 30-day close average.
• The position exits when the close rises above the 3-day high average.
• The moving averages are intended to pair a short-term pullback trigger with a medium-term trend filter.
• The document identifies choppy-market trading, sudden moves, and parameter decay as risks.
• Position sizing and stop-loss rules are absent from the described method and are suggested as additions.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.