Triple-SMA Trend Signals with ATR Stops and Adaptive Profit Targets

Summary

This strategy uses 7-, 25-, and 99-period simple moving averages to identify trend entries. A long signal occurs when the short average crosses above the medium average while price is above the long average; the short setup reverses those conditions. ATR with a 14-period lookback sets stop distance, while the risk-reward target changes from 2:1 to 6:1 under specified SMA crossover conditions.

The document describes the rules and suggested refinements, but reports no performance results. It flags whipsaws in sideways markets, sensitivity to SMA settings, the limits of a fixed ATR multiplier, and slippage or liquidity risk. Suggested changes include trend filters, adaptive parameters, time filters, and more flexible target adjustment. The published BTC/USDT futures backtest settings identify a one-hour period from March to November 2024, but no outcome statistics are provided.

Key ideas

• A 7-period SMA crossing a 25-period SMA, filtered by price relative to the 99-period SMA, defines directional entries.
• The default risk-reward ratio is 2:1 and increases to 6:1 under specified crossover conditions.
• A 14-period ATR multiplied by a configurable factor determines stop and target distances.
• The document provides backtest settings but no evidence of realized strategy performance.
• Sideways markets, parameter sensitivity, and execution conditions are identified as key limitations.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.