Using a 90-Day Relative-Performance Index to Identify Altcoin Season
Summary
The article explains an index that compares the 90-day returns of the top 100 altcoins with Bitcoin’s return. It defines altcoin season as a period when at least 75% of those altcoins outperform Bitcoin, and describes the index as a way to summarize relative market leadership. A reading toward the Bitcoin side indicates Bitcoin season, while one toward the altcoin side indicates altcoin leadership; intermediate readings suggest more comparable performance. The article reports that the index briefly passed 75 in its illustrated period and gives a reading of 41 as of January 13, 2025.
It also discusses possible market drivers, including stablecoin liquidity, institutional flows, Ethereum’s relative strength, sector narratives, and regulation. These are presented as context and potential signals rather than tested predictors. The index covers only the top 100 altcoins, smooths performance over a defined lookback, and may not capture smaller assets or future changes in market structure. The article advises treating it as one input alongside risk controls, not as a standalone investment rule.
Key ideas
- The index compares 90-day returns for the top 100 altcoins with Bitcoin’s return.
- Altcoin season is defined as at least 75% of the tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.
- Readings indicate relative leadership, while intermediate values suggest more similar performance.
- Liquidity, institutional flows, Ethereum performance, narratives, and regulation are discussed as possible market drivers.
- The index excludes smaller altcoins and is not presented as a standalone investment signal.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.