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Using a Bitcoin Call Butterfly Around ETF and Inflation Catalysts

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Summary

The document presents a defined-risk call butterfly on Bitcoin, motivated by a bullish view ahead of U.S. employment and inflation releases. The example buys the $74,000 and $78,000 calls and sells two $76,000 calls, all expiring June 14, 2024. Its payoff is highest if Bitcoin finishes near the middle strike; the stated maximum profit is $1,846 per BTC against a $154 debit, which also caps the loss. The trade therefore expresses a move toward a specific price area rather than an unlimited bullish view.

The bullish case cites ETF inflows, exchange-balance declines, a breakout from a triangle, and resilience around $66,700. The author also points to possible data-driven catalysts and expects a weaker CPI reading to support Bitcoin. These are contemporaneous market interpretations, not a tested forecast: the article gives no backtest or probability estimates. The butterfly can lose its full initial cost if expiry is far from the middle strike, and the dated strikes and catalysts make the example specific to its original market context.

Key ideas

  • A call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two middle-strike calls, and buys one higher-strike call.
  • The example targets Bitcoin near $76,000 at June 14, 2024 expiry.
  • The maximum stated gain occurs at the middle strike, while the initial debit limits the loss.
  • The bullish rationale combines ETF flows, technical levels, and upcoming employment and inflation data.
  • The article offers a market view and example, not tested evidence or a general performance estimate.

Tags

CryptoOptionsEvent-drivenBreakoutRisk management

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.