Using BTC Options Volatility to Frame U.S. Election Scenarios

Summary

This newsletter examines how traders might interpret Bitcoin options prices around the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the following Federal Reserve decision. It relates BTC’s prior movement to shifts in election odds, then uses the implied volatility premium and changes across expiration dates to estimate the market’s expected move. The author interprets pricing as favoring a substantial reaction in either direction, but not an extreme surprise, and outlines possible price areas tied to each election outcome.

The piece also discusses downside and upside skew, including a proposed November call spread, and reports contemporaneous volatility, open interest, and skew observations for BTC and ETH. It includes brief reports on ETH-linked products and market flows. These are snapshot readings and the author’s scenario estimates, not evidence from a tested trading system. The analysis is specific to that election week, relies on market-implied probabilities and volatility, and offers no guarantee that realized moves will match options pricing; the newsletter itself says it is educational rather than investment advice.

Key ideas

• The newsletter connects BTC’s movement during the week to changing election odds and prediction market pricing.
• Options prices imply elevated short-dated volatility around the election compared with recent realized volatility.
• The author uses volatility across expirations to estimate the market’s expected spot move and sketch outcome-based price scenarios.
• BTC and ETH options show different put-call positioning and 25-delta skew in the reported market snapshot.
• The proposed options trade and price levels are illustrative opinions, not tested or assured outcomes.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.