Using EIA Inventory Reports to Trade Oil and Natural Gas Perpetuals
Summary
The document explains how weekly EIA inventory reports can inform trading in crude oil and natural gas perpetual futures. For crude, it focuses on commercial stock changes, gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery use, production, and Cushing stocks. For natural gas, it emphasizes working-gas injections or withdrawals, seasonal context, and weather. In both markets, the gap between reported figures and expectations is presented as a key source of price movement.
It suggests using inventory data alongside API estimates, historical averages, OPEC decisions, geopolitical developments, and futures-curve structure. Report releases may also affect positioning and funding rates, though these signals are framed as possibilities rather than reliable forecasts. The document recommends managing event risk with smaller exposure, controlled position sizes, and stop losses. It offers no backtest or measured evidence for the proposed signals, and inventory figures can be revised or overshadowed by weather and other events. Its discussion is specific to commodity perpetual products and should not be read as proof that inventory surprises predict profitable trades.
Key ideas
- Compare inventory results with expectations, seasonal patterns, and historical levels.
- Crude analysis can include commercial stocks, refined products, production, refinery use, and Cushing inventories.
- Natural gas storage changes need interpretation in light of injection or withdrawal season and weather.
- API estimates may provide context for the later EIA release, while differences between reports can raise volatility.
- Combine inventory signals with other fundamental factors and control exposure around scheduled releases.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.