Using Ethereum Address Profitability and Perpetual Open Interest to Read Market Positioning
Summary
The article combines address-level on-chain measures and perpetual swap open interest to assess Ethereum adoption and investor positioning ahead of the planned Serenity Phase 0 upgrade. Its Historical In/Out of the Money measure estimates how many ETH-holding addresses are above or below their average acquisition cost, while balance and holding-duration counts describe network participation and longer-term ownership.
Comparing the period around ETH’s earlier price near $244 with the later period, the article reports more addresses in profit and fewer out of the money, alongside growth in addresses holding ETH and addresses holding it for over a year. It also notes that perpetual swap open interest rose alongside ETH’s price, interpreting the combination as bullish derivatives positioning. These are descriptive indicators from a particular historical market period; address counts do not establish unique investors or intent, and open interest alone does not identify who is positioned on which side. The article acknowledges that price may not follow the indicators, so the evidence supports a sentiment and adoption reading rather than a reliable forecast.
Key ideas
- Historical in/out-of-the-money measures estimate address profitability using average on-chain cost.
- A rise in profitable addresses alongside more ETH-holding addresses can reflect new buyers and accumulation.
- The article treats growing counts of balance-holding and long-duration addresses as adoption and holding signals.
- Rising perpetual swap open interest alongside price gains is presented as bullish positioning, but not as proof of future price direction.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.