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Using TOTAL3, ETH/BTC, and Rotation Signals to Assess Altcoin Cycles

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Summary

The document presents TOTAL3, which tracks crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, as a way to assess altcoin market conditions. It combines chart patterns, market structure, and capital-flow indicators to frame a possible altcoin rally. Signals discussed include a cup and handle, an inverse head and shoulders with resistance around $1.1 trillion to $1.16 trillion, rising altcoin volumes, declining Bitcoin dominance, stablecoin inflows, and relative strength in ETH/BTC.

It also describes RSI, MACD, Fibonacci levels, and the Altcoin Season Index as supplementary measures, and cites Ethereum’s role in the 2017 and 2021 cycles as historical context. These are presented as bullish indications rather than a tested trading system: the document offers no methodology for measuring signal reliability or defining entries and exits. It acknowledges that resistance must be cleared and that macroeconomic conditions can affect the outlook; overbought RSI readings may also precede a correction.

Key ideas

  • TOTAL3 tracks altcoin capitalization while excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • The document interprets several chart patterns and momentum indicators as evidence of possible upside.
  • Falling Bitcoin dominance, stablecoin inflows, and rising altcoin volume are presented as signs of capital rotation.
  • ETH/BTC strength and past Ethereum-led cycles are used as context for assessing altseason risk.
  • These indicators do not establish a reliable forecast, and resistance or macro conditions could alter the outlook.

Tags

CryptoTechnical indicatorsMomentumBreakoutSentiment

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.