Weekly Bitcoin and Ether Derivatives Signals During a Spot Rally

Summary

This weekly report compares Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions during a strong spot-market recovery. It tracks perpetual swap funding, futures implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility term structures, and 25-delta risk reversals. The report says Bitcoin rose above $90,000 amid improved trade-deal prospects, while derivatives signals remained mixed: funding recorded two negative spikes and its volatility term structure did not invert. Ether’s rally received stronger derivatives support, with short-dated volatility skew rising sharply before easing.

The report also describes futures yields re-steepening for Bitcoin and Ether yields remaining below Bitcoin’s after an earlier decline. It includes cross-exchange volatility and skew comparisons, composite volatility surfaces, and expiry-specific smiles, but the supplied text contains no chart values or underlying calculations. These are observations from a single weekly snapshot, not a tested trading strategy or evidence that derivatives signals predict future returns. The report’s conclusions should therefore be read as a market recap, with limited detail on methods and no stated performance assessment.

Key ideas

• Bitcoin spot strength coincided with two negative spikes in perpetual funding, suggesting derivatives positioning did not uniformly confirm the rally.
• Ether derivatives were described as offering stronger support, including a marked increase in short-tenor skew.
• Bitcoin’s volatility term structure remained uninverted and steeper than Ether’s in the reported snapshot.
• The report monitors futures implied yields alongside option volatility and skew to compare market conditions.
• The text provides qualitative weekly observations but no chart data, forecasting test, or strategy evaluation.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.