Weekly BTC and ETH Derivatives Signals Before a US Election
Summary
This weekly analytics recap tracks sentiment in BTC and ETH through perpetual funding, futures yields, options volatility, and volatility smile skew. It characterizes both assets as broadly bullish: perpetual funding remained positive, implied futures yields were elevated, and options skew favored calls across tenors. Futures curves were inverted, though BTC’s front end had declined and flattened; ETH’s curve shifted between inverted and disinverted states before returning to a similar configuration.
The report also notes that election-related uncertainty coincided with rising 14-day implied volatility in both assets, while far-dated volatility was mostly sideways and seven-day volatility fell sharply after a spike. It points readers to exchange comparisons, volatility surfaces, listed expiries, and constant-maturity smiles, but the supplied text contains no chart values, detailed model description, or backtest. These are descriptive market observations from a single week; they show how derivatives measures can summarize positioning and event risk, but do not demonstrate predictive power or provide a standalone trading strategy.
Key ideas
- Positive perpetual funding and elevated futures yields were interpreted as signs of bullish positioning.
- Futures yield curves remained inverted in BTC and returned to inversion in ETH.
- Options skew favored calls across BTC and ETH tenors.
- Fourteen-day implied volatility rose as election uncertainty approached, while far-dated volatility moved little.
- Seven-day volatility dropped after a recent spike, illustrating how short-tenor volatility can reprice quickly.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.