Weekly Crypto Derivatives Signals Around the 2024 US Election

Summary

This weekly report reviews BTC and ETH derivatives conditions ahead of the US presidential election. It highlights a term-structure dislocation in which 30-day at-the-money implied volatility had risen toward longer-dated levels, even as outright volatility eased during the week. Short-tenor volatility smiles reflected recent downside pressure: BTC put skew later recovered toward calls, while ETH retained a short-dated put premium.

The report also surveys futures yields, perpetual funding, risk reversals, and volatility surfaces across exchanges and listed expiries. BTC and ETH futures yield curves were described as flat, with positive perpetual funding generally prevailing. The material is a concise snapshot rather than a full quantitative analysis: charts are referenced but not included in the supplied text, and it gives no explicit trade recommendation, numerical model, or performance evaluation. Its observations are specific to the week and election-related calendar context.

Key ideas

• Short-dated implied volatility was elevated relative to longer maturities around the election period.
• Recent downside moves were reflected in put skew, with BTC skew recovering more than ETH skew.
• BTC and ETH futures yields showed broadly flat term structures in the reported week.
• Perpetual funding was generally positive for both assets, with a sharp negative ETH episode.
• The report summarizes market conditions but does not provide a tested strategy or trade rules.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.