Weekly Trend Following with SMA, MACD, ADX, and Swing-Low Stops

Summary

This long-only trend strategy combines a simple moving average, MACD, and ADX as entry filters. It seeks a bullish setup when price is above the moving average, MACD is positive and above its signal line, and ADX indicates a sufficiently strong trend. For risk management, the described method tracks recent swing lows and uses the second most recent low as a stop; falling below the moving average also figures in the exit logic. The overview frames the approach for weekly trading, although the published backtest settings specify daily periods.

The document identifies lag, large drawdowns, unstable swing-low identification, and false signals in ranging markets as limitations. Its published test covers only a short ETH-USDT sample and includes no performance statistics, so it offers no basis for judging robustness or profitability. The proposed additions, such as volatility-adaptive parameters or market classification, are suggestions rather than tested improvements.

Key ideas

• A long entry requires price above its SMA, bullish positive MACD, and ADX above a threshold.
• The exit logic uses a prior swing low as a stop and also checks price against the SMA.
• Multiple filters may reduce weak signals but can delay entries.
• The overview describes weekly trading, while the published test settings use daily periods.
• The brief backtest provides no reported performance evidence.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.