Why Expected Shortfall Is Subadditive for Combined Losses
Summary
The document explains why expected shortfall for the sum of two loss variables is no greater than the sum of their separate expected shortfalls. The key idea is that the worst observations for the combined portfolio generally differ from the worst observations for each component considered on its own. When one asset has a severe loss, the other may have a less extreme outcome, reducing the combined tail loss relative to adding the two separate tail averages.
A sample-based explanation orders the combined losses and averages the largest observations, then contrasts that set with the separately ordered losses. Its examples illustrate that the largest combined outcome need not pair the largest observations of both components. The argument supports subadditivity and diversification in tail-risk measurement; the excerpts do not provide a complete formal proof or cover all distributional and estimation details.
Key ideas
- Expected shortfall of combined losses is bounded above by the sum of component expected shortfalls.
- The worst tail observations for each component need not occur together.
- Averaging the largest combined losses differs from adding averages of separate largest losses.
- The examples illustrate how imperfect alignment of extreme losses can reduce portfolio tail risk.
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# Proof for expected shortfall sub additivity
# Proof for expected shortfall sub additivity
I found on pag 5 https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ589/acertasc.pdf the proof about the sub additivity of expected shortfall. I understood the demonstration on the whole, but I would like to clear out this doubt: for which exact reason we can say that the first side of (9) formula is always <= than the second one? I thought this could be explained by the triangle inequality, but I think it doesn't work.
## Answer by Bob Jansen (score 2)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/71904
As per your previous question, please provide more details in your question. A quick hint:
It seems to me that on the LHS you have the worst $\omega$ realizations of $X + Y$ and on the RHS you have the worst $\omega$ realizations of them individually. If $X$ and $Y$ are not perfectly correlated the worst realizations of $X$ and $Y$ will not match so the worst of $X$ will be probably be compensated by a realization from $Y$ that is not the worst. Therefore, the value of the RHS will always at least be as high. For example, consider these realizations:
$$X = -10, 0, 10 \textrm{ and } Y = 10, 0, -10$$
## Answer by Bennnn (score 0)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/71953
Let random variables $X,Y$ correspond to the loss distributions of two assets. We invest in both and hence have loss distribution $L = X + Y$.
For $n$ realisations, denote the order statistics of $L$ as: $L^{(1)} \leq L^{(2)} \leq ... \leq L^{(n-1)} \leq L^{(n)}$
We're interested in the expectation given the $\alpha$ percentile case scenario is exceeded. Taking $n$ sufficiently large and setting $m = \lfloor (1-\alpha) n \rfloor$ as the number of observations exceeding this percentile level we have the estimator:
$$ ES_{\alpha} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{m-1} L^{(n-i)}}{m} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{m-1} (X+Y)^{(n-i)}}{m} $$
For your problem:
The numerator, $\sum_{i=0}^{m-1} L^{(n-i)}$, is the sum of the $m$ largest values of $(X+Y)_{1:n}$
However the largest values of $X+Y$ do NOT correspond to the largest values of $X$ and $Y$.
We could have: $ X_{1:3} = (3, 0, 5)$, $Y_{1:3} = (3, 4, 0)$ and so $(X+Y)_{1:3} = (6, 4, 5)$
Hence $(X+Y)^{(3)} = 6$.
However $X^{(3)} + Y^{(3)} = 5 + 4 = 9$
You're correct with the general idea of the triangle inequality, the paper just doesn't illustrate it very well.
$$ \sum_{i=0}^{m-1} (X+Y)^{(n-i)} \leq \sum_{i=0}^{m-1} X^{(n-i)} + \sum_{i=0}^{m-1} Y^{(n-i)} $$Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.