Why Risk-Neutral Stock Drift Equals the Risk-Free Rate
Summary
The document explains why Black–Scholes–Merton option pricing uses the risk-free rate as a stock’s drift under the risk-neutral measure, even though the stock may have a different expected return in the real world. Under the physical measure, each stock can have its own drift reflecting its risk premium. For pricing, the framework changes probability measures so that expected returns are represented at the risk-free rate.
With this risk-neutral drift, discounting the stock price by the money-market account produces a martingale, which supports risk-neutral valuation. The answers give an intuitive explanation rather than a derivation: they refer to changing the probability weights on possible price paths and mention Girsanov’s theorem without developing it. This is a conceptual account within the Black–Scholes–Merton framework, not a claim that real investors ignore risk or that actual stock returns equal the risk-free rate.
Key ideas
- A stock’s physical-measure drift can vary with its risk premium.
- Under the risk-neutral measure, the stock’s expected return is set to the risk-free rate in the model.
- Discounting by the money-market account makes the stock price a martingale under the risk-neutral measure.
- The explanation is intuitive and does not derive the measure change mathematically.
Tags
Full text
# In BS option pricing, why is the drift rate of GBM equal to risk free rate for all stocks in risk neutral?
# In BS option pricing, why is the drift rate of GBM equal to risk free rate for all stocks in risk neutral?
Can the drift rate μ depend on specific stock ? If not what is the rationale for the discounted Stock price to be a martingale ?
\begin{align} & dS_t/S_t = \mu dt + \sigma dW_t \end{align}
Thanks
## Answer by alexbougias (score 2)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/46958
Your SDE describes the evolution of the stock price under the physical measure $\mathbb{P}$. However, the BSM model is developed under the risk neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$. Without digging into results of measure theory and the Girsanov theorem of change of measure, you intuitively "change the weight" of the trajectories such that on average the rate of change is $r dt$. In fact, you define a new probability measure. In the risk neutral world, investors are not compensated for the excess risk and all risk premiums diminish. Back in your question, under the $\mathbb{P}$-Measure the stock can have its own idiosyncratic drift parameter $\mu$, but under the $\mathbb{Q}$-Measure, the drift parameter should be $r$. Hence, under this measure the discounted process with numaire the money market account is a martingale. Then, steps are straightforward.
## Answer by Kevin (score 2)
https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/46959
An easy way to think about it:
In the risk-neutral world ($\mathbb{Q}$), investors don’t care about risk and don’t pay you more or less than they pay for a risk-free investment. They don’t really see a difference. Hence, all assets have the same return, the risk-free rate $r$.
Of course, in the real world ($\mathbb{P}$), people do care and a stock has a different return $\mu$. There is a risk premium investors pay. And of course, different stocks may have different drift rates.Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.