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Hypotheses

ETC Perp 4H Trend, Gated by MAJOR-COMPLEX BREADTH — Long-Short Directional Momentum on ETCUSDT.BINANCE That Trades ONLY When a Majority of the Top-5 Majors Confirm the Same Market-Wide Regime (breadth is a signal-only overlay, no second fee-paying leg; ATR-chandelier exit, 3-parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, DIRECTIONAL, single-traded-instrument 4H trend follower on ETCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (listed 2020-01-16, 6.6 years of 4H history verified in the catalog, top-50 liquidity, NEVER traded in this…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, DIRECTIONAL, single-traded-instrument 4H trend follower on ETCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (listed 2020-01-16, 6.6 years of 4H history verified in the catalog, top-50 liquidity, NEVER traded in this factory's 3084-experiment corpus). The novelty is the confirmation variable: instead of confirming the trend with something measured on the SAME price series (volume surge, path efficiency, dual-timeframe, OI, taker flow, funding — all already spent here), the trade is gated by CROSS-SECTIONAL BREADTH of……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, DIRECTIONAL, single-traded-instrument 4H trend follower on ETCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (listed 2020-01-16, 6.6 years of 4H history verified in the catalog, top-50 liquidity, NEVER traded in this factory's 3084-experiment corpus). The novelty is the confirmation variable: instead of confirming the trend with something measured on the SAME price series (volume surge, path efficiency, dual-timeframe, OI, taker flow, funding — all already spent here), the trade is gated by CROSS-SECTIONAL BREADTH of the major complex. Five majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DAILY bars) are carried as SIGNAL-ONLY extra instruments — never traded, so no second round-trip is paid and lesson L95 does not apply: the position stays outright and directional. Breadth b = fraction of available majors whose daily close is above their own 50-day SMA. Premise: an idiosyncratic 4H trend on a mid-cap alt is mostly noise, but the same trend embedded in a market-wide regime (b ≥ 0.6 up, b ≤ 0.4 down) is a real risk-appetite move that persists for days; standing flat in the disagreement zone removes the chop that kills single-name alt trend followers. Deliberately 3 parameters (mom_lookback, atr_mult, breadth_threshold).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.