Compression-Trap Reversal, Untested Mid-Cap Universe: Buy the Failed Downside Break of an NR7 Day on 18 Second-Tier Bybit USDT Perps (CHZ/SAND/MANA/GALA/CRV/HBAR/VET/EGLD/ENJ/KSM/ALGO/ICP/THETA/AXS/COMP/XTZ/DASH/DYDX), Fixed 3-Day Clock, 12.5% per Leg, Max 5 Concurrent (BYBIT 1-DAY, long-only event panel, pure OHLCV)

Breadth replication of the factory's most-replicated promoted event mechanism (lesson L227) on price series the corpus has never used for it. Mechanism: after the narrowest-range day of the last 7 (NR7), a daily CLOSE on the very next day below that NR7 day's low is a stop-run into the liquidity pocket under a tight range. Resting sell stops cluster just below a compressed range; when they are swept, the forced flow exhausts and price reverts. Buy that close and hold for a fixed 3 days. Promoted so far on: Bybit perps (9 MAJORS: ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE/ADA/LINK/AVAX/BNB/LTC, 742 trades, +0.99%/trade), OKX swaps (940 trades, +1.11%), Binance spot (DOT/ATOM/FIL/ETC/BCH/UNI/NEAR/TRX/XLM/AAVE) and Hyperliquid (413 trades, +1.10%). Every one of those panels used large caps or the first tier of alts. This test keeps the rules FROZEN and moves to a disjoint, second-tier universe that none of those panels touched, so it is a new price-series test rather than a re-mine of the same coins on another venue (L228: transfer is a fresh test, results reported on their own). UNIVERSE (fixed by a data rule before any return was looked at): every Bybit USDT linear perp with catalog 1-DAY history starting on or before 2021-11-30, EXCLUDING BTC (corpus concentration), ETH and every name already used in any promoted NR7 panel (ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, BNB, LTC, DOT, ATOM, FIL, ETC, BCH, UNI, NEAR, TRX, XLM, AAVE). From the long-history list that leaves 18 names: CHZ, SAND, MANA, GALA, CRV, HBAR, VET, EGLD, ENJ, KSM, ALGO, ICP, THETA, AXS, COMP, XTZ, DASH, DYDX. No name was dropped after the pre-study (CHZ, MANA and GALA were slightly negative and stay in). The strategy checks is_listed() before every entry (point-in-time universe); a delisting closes the leg at its last price via the base template. PRE-STUDY (Research Lead, catalog BYBIT 1-DAY bars 2021-12-01 to 2026-10-17, gross of costs, non-overlapping events per name, entry at the signal day's close). NR7 failed-downside-break long, 3-day hold: n=1,593 events (~330/yr across the panel), mean +0.61%, median +0.59%, win rate 53%. 2-day mean +0.32%, 5-day +0.09%, so the effect is concentrated in the first 3 days, as on the majors. By year (3d mean): 2022 +0.30%, 2023 +1.51%, 2024 +1.02%, 2025 -0.77%, 2026 +0.80% (2021 had only 26 events). 15 of 18 names had a positive mean. CONTROL: any close below the prior day's low (no NR7 condition) returned -0.43% over 3 days (n=7,402), so the NR7 condition adds about +1.0% per event over the plain down-break. Caveat stated up front: excluding the top 5% of outcomes the mean is -0.32%, so the edge is right-skewed and smaller on these mid-caps than the +1.24% gross measured on the majors; the panel will fire more often than the 5-slot book can take. COST ARITHMETIC: Bybit linear taker round trip 0.11% + ~0.05% impact on mid-caps = ~0.16%. Gross capture ~0.61% per event, about 3.8x the round trip, net ~0.45%; predicted average net trade 0.35% after slot-selection noise. That clears the 0.15% futures floor by ~2x, not by the 6x margin of the majors panels; this is the honest risk of the test. EXECUTION: a market BUY at the signal day's close. On a 24/7 venue that price is the next bar's open (the registry's use_equivalent for next_bar_open_fill). Exit is a market SELL at the close of the 3rd daily bar after entry, on the clock only: no stop, no target (the source panel found a -10% intraday stop cut Sharpe from 1.17 to 0.80, so none is added). One netted position per instrument. Venue: BYBIT linear perps (3.1% of experiments versus a >=5% target); USD-M perps rather than spot because Bybit spot daily history in the catalog starts only in 2026-10 for these names. RISK CONTROL route (b): time exit plus capped sizing. Each position is 12.5% of equity at 1x (no leverage), at most 5 concurrent (62.5% gross). When more names fire on one day than there are free slots, take the deepest breaks first (most negative close / NR7 low - 1). Per-position volatility: 12.5% x ~100-130% annualized mid-cap vol = ~13-16%, well under the 120% cap; book realized vol expected ~25-35%, inside the conservative profile's 60% ceiling. Worst single-trade loss at 12.5% weight even on a -40% 3-day collapse is 5% of equity, under the 15% limit. Liquidation is impossible at 0.625x gross with a 1x margin account.