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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

COIN-M BTC Negative-Funding Carry, Long-Only Single-Leg (BINANCE_CM Inverse Perp BTCUSD_PERP, Collect Funding Paid-To-Longs During Backwardation Episodes, Multi-Day Hold, BTC-Denominated Returns, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY, single-leg CARRY strategy on the deepest coin-margined inverse perpetual, BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM. Mechanism is identical in spirit to the deployed survivor '5-Asset Negative-Funding Carry Basket' (Sharpe…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, single-leg CARRY strategy on the deepest coin-margined inverse perpetual, BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM. Mechanism is identical in spirit to the deployed survivor '5-Asset Negative-Funding Carry Basket' (Sharpe 1.97) and 'Cross-Venue BTC Funding Carry' (Sharpe 8.58) — collect a real, mechanically-paid cashflow — but expressed on a genuinely under-represented venue (BINANCE_CM is only 3.0% of the portfolio vs a >=5% quota target) and denominated in BTC, which is the reason the COIN-M venue exists. On an……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY, single-leg CARRY strategy on the deepest coin-margined inverse perpetual, BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM. Mechanism is identical in spirit to the deployed survivor '5-Asset Negative-Funding Carry Basket' (Sharpe 1.97) and 'Cross-Venue BTC Funding Carry' (Sharpe 8.58) — collect a real, mechanically-paid cashflow — but expressed on a genuinely under-represented venue (BINANCE_CM is only 3.0% of the portfolio vs a >=5% quota target) and denominated in BTC, which is the reason the COIN-M venue exists. On an inverse perp, when 8h funding is NEGATIVE, shorts pay longs; a long position is PAID to hold. During risk-off / backwardation episodes on BTC, funding on the coin-margined contract goes persistently negative for 1-3 day stretches. We hold a single long BTCUSD_PERP position through those episodes to harvest the funding, with an ATR stop to bound the directional exposure that comes with being long a single name. Funding is used strictly as CARRY (a cashflow to collect), NOT as a direction predictor — this deliberately avoids the exhausted 'funding-as-signal-on-majors' class (L13). BTC CM is the single deepest inverse perp, so its funding history IS catalogued (avoids L20, which only bites thin multi-asset CM baskets). Deliberately 3 parameters and low-turnover to resist the overfitting that killed 229 prior hypotheses.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.