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Hypotheses

AVAX Wick-Rejection Exhaustion Reversal, Long-Short (Single-Instrument AVAXUSDT.BINANCE USD-M Perp, 1h Bars OHLCV-Only, Fade a Statistically-Stretched Move ONLY When the Signal Bar Prints a Large Absorption Wick Against the Extension — TIGHT Stop Beyond the Wick / LARGER Reversion Target = Favorable Reward:Risk, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument intraday-to-swing REVERSAL on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perp, 1h bars, OHLCV-only — no supplementary feed, the best-surviving tag family at 4%). This is deliberately engineered to AVOID…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument intraday-to-swing REVERSAL on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perp, 1h bars, OHLCV-only — no supplementary feed, the best-surviving tag family at 4%). This is deliberately engineered to AVOID the recurring inverted-reward:risk death that killed the recent single-name fade attempts (LINK Keltner-overshoot, DOGE/ADA VWAP fades all had avg_loss ≈ 2x avg_win: tiny TP, wide stop → win-often-lose-big → PF<1). The fix is structural: I only fade a stretched move when the CURRENT bar itself shows……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument intraday-to-swing REVERSAL on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perp, 1h bars, OHLCV-only — no supplementary feed, the best-surviving tag family at 4%). This is deliberately engineered to AVOID the recurring inverted-reward:risk death that killed the recent single-name fade attempts (LINK Keltner-overshoot, DOGE/ADA VWAP fades all had avg_loss ≈ 2x avg_win: tiny TP, wide stop → win-often-lose-big → PF<1). The fix is structural: I only fade a stretched move when the CURRENT bar itself shows aggressive-flow ABSORPTION — a long rejection wick against the extension (buyers absorbed at a low → long; sellers absorbed at a high → short). That wick gives a genuinely TIGHT stop (just beyond the wick extreme) paired with a LARGER reversion target (back toward the short rolling mean), so reward:risk is ~2:1 in the correct direction rather than inverted. Distinct from every dead fade class: NOT a VWAP z-band always-on fade (needs a same-bar rejection signature), NOT a failed-breakout (no range structure or close-back-inside required), NOT taker-flow divergence (uses only OHLCV wick geometry, not the taker feed that died at -0.199%), NOT a breakout. Fills under-represented long_short (13.8%) and single-name-with-real-edge. Only 3 parameters (deviation z, wick-to-body ratio, target fraction); stop/target derived from volatility, not tuned — to resist the 248 overfit deaths.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.