Compression-Trap Reversal on a Disjoint Post-2021 Cohort, Bybit SPOT: Buy the Failed Downside Break of an NR7 Day on 20 Newer Alts (APT/ARB/OP/SUI/SEI/TIA/INJ/LDO/IMX/STX/WLD/PEPE/GALA/SAND/MANA/CRV/GMX/JUP/ORDI/ENA), Fixed 3-Day Clock, Long-Only 1x Event Panel (BYBIT_SPOT 1-DAY, pure OHLCV)

Original Research Lead hypothesis. It tests a promoted mechanism on a universe and venue it has never seen. Lesson L227 asks for exactly this kind of replication. The rule is frozen from the promoted siblings: Bybit perps (742 trades, avg 0.985%), OKX swaps (940, 1.105%), Binance spot (10 pre-2020 alts) and the Hyperliquid 8-asset daily panel (413, 1.10%). Every one of those universes holds pre-2021 large and mid caps (ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE/ADA/LINK/AVAX/BNB/LTC, DOT/ATOM/ETC/FIL/UNI/BCH/NEAR/AAVE/TRX/XLM). This test uses 20 names NONE of them traded, most of them listed 2022-2024 with a different holder base: unlock-driven supply, airdrop farmers and narrative rotation. That is a real out-of-universe breadth test, not a fifth re-run of the same price series. The venue is BYBIT_SPOT (4 of 4,861 experiments, 0.1%), CASH, long-only and unlevered, so there is no funding or perp liquidation engine in the price path. MECHANISM: the NR7 day is the narrowest daily high-low range of the last 7 days. A tight range packs resting stop-losses and breakout-short entries just under its low. A daily CLOSE below that NR7 day's low runs those orders into a thin liquidity pocket. The forced selling is spent by the close and price snaps back over the next few days. Buy that close, hold a fixed 3 daily bars, sell. UNIVERSE (pre-registered before any measurement; all 20 kept, none dropped after seeing results): APT, ARB, OP, SUI, SEI, TIA, INJ, LDO, IMX, STX, WLD, PEPE, GALA, SAND, MANA, CRV, GMX, JUP, ORDI and ENA, as Bybit spot USDT pairs. Point in time: a leg is eligible only while listed (is_listed) and at least 30 days after its own Bybit spot listing (listed_since); the developer sets parameters.point_in_time_universe=true so later-listed legs do not clamp the window. Residual survivorship: Bybit serves no bars for closed pairs. The names were chosen by liquidity and a disjointness rule, not by performance. RESEARCH LEAD PRE-STUDY (fixed rule, measured BEFORE writing, on Binance spot daily bars of the SAME 20 names as a price proxy: local Bybit spot bars cover only the last few days and are collected on demand, and spot prices of these liquid pairs track across venues to a few bp). NR7 downside-break long, 3-day hold, non-overlapping per name: n=1,594 events on 550 distinct entry dates (L238 asks for this count), mean gross +1.19%, median +0.54%, win rate 52.9%, per-event std 10.0%. 17 of 20 names positive (SUI -0.08%, TIA -0.27% and the rest +0.09% WLD to +3.06% CRV). By year: 2020 +4.45%, 2021 +3.30%, 2022 +1.74%, 2023 +0.60%, 2024 +1.17%, 2025 +0.17% (the weak year, as in every sibling), 2026 +1.59%. INCREMENTAL VALUE of the compression condition (L214/L217): the CONTROL, any close below the prior day's low with the same 3-day hold, earns +0.66% gross on these names (n=4,814), so the NR7 condition adds about +0.53% per event. CAPPED BOOK (6% of equity per event, at most 8 concurrent, 0.20% round trip): 1,365 trades, about +88% total, max drawdown 17.9%; yearly PnL positive in 6 of 8 calendar years (2019 is 5 events, -2.6%; 2025 -9.6% is the real losing year). FEE ARITHMETIC: gross capture about 1.19% minus the 0.20% Bybit spot round trip (0.10% taker per side) leaves about 0.99% net per trade, about 5x the cost; allowing another 0.3% for slippage on mid-cap books still leaves about 0.7%. HONEST CAVEATS: (1) on the Bybit sibling a beta-scaled BTC hedge cut the 3-day mean from +1.25% to +0.14%, so much of this edge is a market-wide rebound expressed through alt stop-runs; the design is deliberately unhedged and long-only, and drawdown is controlled by per-event size and the concurrency cap. (2) The median (+0.54%) is well below the mean: the edge leans on right-tail rebounds. (3) Lesson L170/L224 buy-and-hold comparison, pre-registered: an equal-weight buy-and-hold of these 20 names drew down far more than 70% in 2022 and again in 2024-25, against a predicted <=22% for this book, which is flat about 85% of the time per name. EXECUTION: daily bars on a 24/7 venue. Signals are evaluated at the daily close and filled with a market order at that close, the platform's faithful equivalent of a next-bar-open fill on a continuous market (capability next_bar_open_fill: use_equivalent). No stop orders (risk-control route b: fixed time exit plus capped sizing, no single position above 6% of equity).