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Hypotheses

SOL–ETH Beta-Hedged Residual Mean-Reversion — Market-Neutral Statistical Pairs Spread on Two Liquid L1 Perps (Both BINANCE USD-M, Trade Only ≥2σ Residual Dislocations, 4H Bars, 3-Parameter)

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT statistical-arbitrage pair on two structurally-linked large-cap smart-contract L1s: SOLUSDT.BINANCE and ETHUSDT.BINANCE (both USD-M perps, both deeply liquid, correlation ~0.8). It abandons…

Hypothesis

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT statistical-arbitrage pair on two structurally-linked large-cap smart-contract L1s: SOLUSDT.BINANCE and ETHUSDT.BINANCE (both USD-M perps, both deeply liquid, correlation ~0.8). It abandons the funding-carry family entirely (that family just collided with an abandoned/overfit prior whose avg_trade_return_pct was 0.006% — the gap is structurally below fees). Instead it trades a DIFFERENT mechanism: the beta-hedged residual spread between the two assets mean-reverts after transient……Show moreShow less

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT statistical-arbitrage pair on two structurally-linked large-cap smart-contract L1s: SOLUSDT.BINANCE and ETHUSDT.BINANCE (both USD-M perps, both deeply liquid, correlation ~0.8). It abandons the funding-carry family entirely (that family just collided with an abandoned/overfit prior whose avg_trade_return_pct was 0.006% — the gap is structurally below fees). Instead it trades a DIFFERENT mechanism: the beta-hedged residual spread between the two assets mean-reverts after transient idiosyncratic dislocations. Each bar it estimates the hedge ratio β from a rolling regression of SOL log-returns on ETH log-returns, forms the residual spread = log(SOL) − β·log(ETH) − rolling_mean, and standardizes it to a z-score. When the residual stretches to an extreme (|z| ≥ 2), it takes the reverting side: SHORT the rich leg / LONG the cheap leg, sized so the two legs are beta-neutral (net directional beta ≈ 0), and exits as the residual reverts toward zero. This is not momentum/trend (0/213 dead class, L56), not funding/basis carry (dead, L57), not options, not a single-asset RSI/BBand reversion (crypto-noise-prone), and not a sub-fee microstructure fade — it is a low-frequency, dislocation-gated relative-value trade whose per-event capture is multiples of the fee. It fills the under-represented long-short (14% vs ≤55% ceiling on long-only) and pairs scope buckets. Exactly 3 tunable parameters: entry z-threshold, exit z-threshold, and the rolling lookback for β/mean/σ.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.