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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

BTC Spot 200-Day Regime Timing with Hard Exit-to-Cash — Long-Only, Single-Instrument, Drawdown-Capped (BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT, 1D — Hold Fully Invested ONLY While Price Is in a Confirmed Secular Uptrend Above Its Long Moving Average, Move ENTIRELY to Cash When the Trend Breaks; 2-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV regime-TIMING overlay on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT that is the deliberate, minimal implementation of distilled lesson L48: long-only spot strategies die risk_reject (52–74%…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV regime-TIMING overlay on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT that is the deliberate, minimal implementation of distilled lesson L48: long-only spot strategies die risk_reject (52–74% drawdown) ONLY because they carry full bear-market beta with no de-risk — so this one adds the explicit trend/regime EXIT-TO-CASH that L48 says is the missing ingredient, and nothing else. It is NOT a portfolio-construction basket (min-var/risk-parity, all risk_rejected — this is a single instrument with a……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV regime-TIMING overlay on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT that is the deliberate, minimal implementation of distilled lesson L48: long-only spot strategies die risk_reject (52–74% drawdown) ONLY because they carry full bear-market beta with no de-risk — so this one adds the explicit trend/regime EXIT-TO-CASH that L48 says is the missing ingredient, and nothing else. It is NOT a portfolio-construction basket (min-var/risk-parity, all risk_rejected — this is a single instrument with a binary in/out allocation, no covariance optimization), NOT a buy-the-dip accumulation (that died no_trades by clustering entries in 2020–2023 — this toggles with the trend in EVERY regime cycle), NOT a cross-venue basis/carry (that entire two-leg family just died fee_edge again on SOL and BTC), NOT a fade (L53), NOT a squeeze (L54), NOT options/COIN-M/cross-sectional. The mechanism is intentionally the simplest robust rule in the literature — hold BTC while it is above its long moving average in a confirmed uptrend, sit in CASH otherwise — chosen precisely because overfit is the #1 killer here (301 deaths) and a 2-parameter, decades-validated regime filter has almost no curve-fitting surface. It fills the under-represented spot venue (11.8% vs ≥15% target, and spot is the documented highest-survival venue) while structurally solving the exact reasons prior spot strategies were rejected.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.