ASX Gold-Miner Idiosyncratic Down-Shock Rebound: buy an Australian gold miner at the next ASX open after a >=2-sigma daily drop RELATIVE TO ITS GOLD-MINER PEER BASKET, fixed 5-session clock (AUEQ 1-DAY, 10-name point-in-time panel, long-only, unlevered, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). It moves the factory's most reliable mechanism family, long-side shock absorption measured against peers with a fixed exit clock, into a market the factory has never traded. AUEQ (ASX) has 2 experiments in 4,999, and no ASX gold-miner experiment exists. The trigger is sector-residual rather than raw, as L256 asks. Each day at the ASX close, for every panel miner, the strategy computes its log return minus beta x the equal-weight log return of the OTHER panel miners listed that day. Beta is a 120-session rolling OLS lagged one session. The residual is divided by its own 60-session standard deviation, also lagged one session. A residual z <= -2.0 together with a negative raw return marks a stock-specific down-shock: the miner fell much more than the gold-mining complex on a day the gold price and the sector did not explain it. Typical causes are a guidance cut, a grade/reconciliation miss, a capital raise or a forced index or fund exit. ASX gold miners have a thin domestic institutional base and many small-cap holders, and Australian brokers publish sell-side reratings with a lag. Liquidity-driven selling overshoots and partly reverses over about a week. The miner is bought at the NEXT ASX session open: next_open_fill is supported on session venues, and a decision made on the daily close fills at the next session's open. It is held for exactly 5 sessions open-to-open. Panel: NST, EVN, RMS, CMM, GMD, PRU and VAU (all with daily history from 2018-01-02), plus NEM (ASX listing from 2023-10), DPM (from 2025-09) and GGP (from 2025-06). Each name enters the peer basket and becomes tradable only once it has 180 sessions of its own history at that date (point-in-time via listed_since()/is_listed()). SURVIVORSHIP DISCLOSURE: the panel is the gold miners in today's ASX top-100 universe file. Miners that collapsed or were absorbed (e.g. St Barbara, Resolute, Westgold, Silver Lake before its merger into VAU) are not in the catalog, so the long arm is biased upward by name selection. The peer-relative trigger and the diagnostic below are the controls for that bias. A pre-registered diagnostic reports the per-trade return in EXCESS of the peer basket's same 5-session open-to-open return. If the raw return is positive but the peer-excess return is <= 0, the 'idiosyncratic rebound' premise is not shown: the result is then just gold-miner beta in a gold bull market. The analyst should read it that way. Pre-study (counts only, used to pre-register sample size, not to accept the idea): fixed k=2.0, 5-session clock, 2018-2026 gives 381 events on 341 distinct dates. The mean raw 5-session open-to-open return was +1.40% and the peer-excess return +0.64%. A close-location absorption filter (close in the upper 40% of the range, L258) cut the sample to 57 events / 54 dates, so it is NOT part of the base rule. It is offered only as a categorical tunable. Costs: AUEQ is a CASH account (long-only, unlevered). The commission is 0.08% of trade value per side, so ~0.16% round trip plus about 0.05-0.10% spread/impact on these liquid ASX200 names, giving ~0.25% all-in. The promotion floor is the round trip + 0.05%. No FX leg and no gold-price leg, so there is no cross-currency or cross-calendar complication. Metrics are in AUD (USD view in fx_report).