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Hypotheses

Binance Options ETH Weekly Bull Put Spread on Elevated IV (Defined-Risk Short Volatility Carry)

A defined-risk, weekly-cycle, short-volatility carry strategy on Binance ETH European-style cash-settled options. Implements a BULL PUT SPREAD (sell short-strike put + buy long-strike put, both same weekly expiry)…

Hypothesis

A defined-risk, weekly-cycle, short-volatility carry strategy on Binance ETH European-style cash-settled options. Implements a BULL PUT SPREAD (sell short-strike put + buy long-strike put, both same weekly expiry) collecting net credit when ETH implied volatility is elevated and ETH spot is not in active drawdown. Profits when ETH stays above the short-strike at expiry (most weeks) by capturing time-decay (theta) and IV mean-reversion (vega). Tail risk is BOUNDED by the long-put leg — max loss per spread is……Show moreShow less

A defined-risk, weekly-cycle, short-volatility carry strategy on Binance ETH European-style cash-settled options. Implements a BULL PUT SPREAD (sell short-strike put + buy long-strike put, both same weekly expiry) collecting net credit when ETH implied volatility is elevated and ETH spot is not in active drawdown. Profits when ETH stays above the short-strike at expiry (most weeks) by capturing time-decay (theta) and IV mean-reversion (vega). Tail risk is BOUNDED by the long-put leg — max loss per spread is (strike_width - net_premium) × contract_size, completely defined at entry. Addresses the SECOND-LARGEST quota gap precision-targeting BINANCE_OPTIONS specifically (currently 0/660 = 0.0%, vs combined-options ≥15% target). Also adds: (1) multi-instrument scope; (2) ETH coverage (vs BTC-heavy portfolio); (3) NEW mechanism class — short volatility / theta harvesting — which is orthogonal to the long-volatility DeribitBtcStraddle strategy I previously proposed (that one BUYS vol; this one SELLS vol). These two complement each other and form a vol-trading book. CRITICALLY DIFFERENT from failure patterns this session: (a) NOT a 4H bar pattern; (b) defined-risk structure means NO 'single trade dependency' (no one trade can win >+1×premium nor lose >-(width-premium)); (c) NOT a directional bet on ETH — works in flat/up markets, only loses in sharp down moves > short-strike; (d) NOT a regime-fragile breakout strategy — vol mean-reversion is more reliable than price-trend continuation in crypto.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.