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Hypotheses

BTC Daily Death-Cross Bear Regime Short — Volatility-Confirmed Trend Reversal

A SHORT-ONLY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE perpetual futures (Binance USD-M, ~0.10% RT) using DAILY bars. The strategy enters short only during confirmed bear-trend regimes identified by a triple-filter: (1) 50-day SMA…

Hypothesis

A SHORT-ONLY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE perpetual futures (Binance USD-M, ~0.10% RT) using DAILY bars. The strategy enters short only during confirmed bear-trend regimes identified by a triple-filter: (1) 50-day SMA below 200-day SMA (classic death cross), (2) current price below 200-day SMA (trend confirmation, not just an MA crossover), AND (3) 20-day realized volatility above its 90-day median (volatility expansion — bear markets historically expand vol, while sideways markets compress it). Exits on……Show moreShow less

A SHORT-ONLY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE perpetual futures (Binance USD-M, ~0.10% RT) using DAILY bars. The strategy enters short only during confirmed bear-trend regimes identified by a triple-filter: (1) 50-day SMA below 200-day SMA (classic death cross), (2) current price below 200-day SMA (trend confirmation, not just an MA crossover), AND (3) 20-day realized volatility above its 90-day median (volatility expansion — bear markets historically expand vol, while sideways markets compress it). Exits on golden-cross reversal (50-SMA crosses back above 200-SMA), 10% adverse move stop, or 60-day time-stop. This is the FIRST short-only strategy proposed this session and adds genuine diversification to a pipeline of 11 long-biased strategies. Mechanism is structurally distinct from every prior session failure: NOT cross-asset (single instrument), NOT cross-sectional (no ranking), NOT mean-reversion (pure trend continuation in the bear direction), NOT sub-daily (daily bars), NOT calendar-based, NOT supp-data dependent, NOT accumulation, NOT a pair, NOT cross-venue, NOT options. While the technical primitives (SMA crossover) overlap with the Tier 1 trend-following category (which had 4 long-only failures), the SHORT direction is empirically the opposite regime: 2022 BTC -77%, 2018 BTC -84%, 2014 BTC -85% are all captured by death-cross + sub-200-SMA filters, regimes that NO long-only strategy can profit from. The volatility-expansion filter is the critical addition that prevents whipsaws during sideways markets — the same SMA crossover without it would fire repeatedly in chop. Trade frequency is naturally very low (~2-5 entries per 7 years) so fee drag is minimal.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.